The local trend from the start of Q2 has been phenomenal, and hopefully you've all been participating. We've been riding it from 65k in the Paragon.

My main expectation is that we trade up towards 84k, and then from there I make a judgment call around how it reacts.

Does it look like we're losing momentum? Do we get some sort of escalation that doesn't have any follow through?

But I'm not trying to be super quick with the defensive positioning, I'd rather be a little bit late than early.

The way I'm positioned is kind of win-win. I'm long across the board, so either we see some reason to hedge and go into defense mode, or it trades up a lot higher than people expect, catches them off guard and makes them FOMO in higher.

If there's not some sort of pretty obvious failure point around 84k, then we could trade up towards 100k.

Spot-led, staying long

This is clearly a spot-led rally.

Taker flows and liquidity are all telling me the same thing: slow and stable grind up, building these comps, trading up higher, building another comp.

It's honestly caught me off guard that we haven't had that God candle moment yet, but from a process standpoint this is exactly what healthy price action looks like.

TLDR; 84k is the level to watch, no hedge until there's a reason

Summer chop, then Q4

As we approach the summertime, my thesis is that risk assets lose their momentum and the bid dries up, which means Bitcoin goes into either a range or kind of a bloody environment for a couple months. Then price compresses into a triangle formation heading into Q4 and trades up from there.

I've been saying for months this is the macro bottom formation, whether we trade back down and test the 70k lows or not. I don't think we'll make any massive new lows. I think all the people waiting for 40k and 50k are going to remain sidelined forever and be forced to buy higher.

I've been arguing for re-accumulation ever since we traded down in the 60s, and that's been proven valid. Once the macro bull trend really escalates (I'm hoping Q4) I'll be targeting up into that 175k region.

Godspeed.

Very simple plans going into this week: as long as the 12 hours holds, I'm aiming upwards.

The weekly VWAP value areas have also been very clean. I'm looking for longs at the previous week's value area low around 79.5k, or holding above previous week's value area high ~81.3k.

The cluster at 83-84k

If we get above 81.5k, the next zone I'm looking at is 83-84.

There's a lot of confluence there: previous quarterly value area high, yearly value high, the all-time high anchored VWAP and the CME weekly trend.

One thing to note: this is stair-step price action. We're getting incremental 1-2k moves, crabby pullbacks, choppy price action, next leg higher. That's the meta. Not massive 5k moves at a time.

What breaks the trend

If the 12-hour trend breaks and we start accepting below previous week's value low ~79k, that would be a big character shift.

Any pushes below or into prior week's value levels have been buying opportunities during this rally, but we have not gotten acceptance below previous week's value low.

No FUD left to fight

The stock market has had a fantastic recovery. We digested the war news. It isn't affecting price much anymore.

My method for deriving edge from macro is observing this process: absorb FUD, market prices it in, fail to sell off lower, show resilience in the face of headline weakness.

Every little micro update on tariffs, wars, rates doesn't help me.

I was looking at 78-80k off those 65k lows. That got proven very nicely. Now we're trading even higher than that because of the ferocity in the stock market over the past few weeks.

That's it. Hope you guys have a good week.

I'm using BTC as my risk-on proxy for alts, and for the minute, it's telling me to stay in.

We just keep getting continuous higher lows and higher highs.

Here's what's actually on the watchlist.

ZEC

It's been one of the strongest coins lately, and I had it drawn up, but it just bled below its recent low.

As always, I want to see some low time frame relative strength with these setups, but it just didn't show it.

No trigger, no trade.

HYPE 

I never added. Wanted to, but structurally we're looking pretty poor in terms of lower highs. Just leaving it for now.

SOL

Actually burst out of its range this week, which is really good. But personally I'd rather go with the high-volatility altcoins, so not chasing that one.

ETH

Looking okay. Not incredible. Not interested.

JELLYJELLY

Had a perfect setup: very high time frame pivot, broke out, pulled a nice 20-30% from there. My alert was stale and I completely missed it. Lovely.

Side note, this nuked later on, which speaks to the importance of moving up stops on these high volatility coins.

Current positions

I'm still holding XMR, FARTCOIN, and MOODENG, although MOODENG not looking great, stops tight near the lows. If spaghetti throws up something fresh today, I'll flag it in Paragon.

Full rotation up to the high side of developing yearly value (~83). Now getting choppy.

This type of grind typically rolls over fairly quickly once positioning starts unraveling, so I'd be cautious about adding tons of leverage up here for big swings. Acceptance above mid 80s and I'll start chasing more upside.

High 70s important to hold.

12H BTC: Key consolidation area right above. Trading right under developing yearly value and right under prior consolidation before breakdown, with a volume gap into ~85.

Mid 80s lines up with a ton of HTF confluence. If this is a counter-trend rally, expect rejection there. POC for prior consolidation: ~90.

Weeks ago we discussed the significant shift in trend that Bitcoin established via a reclaim of the 12H 200 MAs (6-month downtrend line), and a breakout above our 2-month range.

The thesis was we should be able to see BTC rally into the ~90k region, where we have even more significant trends and levels awaiting us.

While this is to be looked at as a bearish relief rally, it's likely not in one's best interest to remain sidelined for a probable ~25% move.

So far so good, as BTC continues chugging along. The thesis remains unchanged, and although it's taking longer than I'd hoped, no meaningful signs of weakness have come into the market since.