Macro yap, geopolitics, all that stuff, I don't really care about any of it from a trading standpoint.

If I try to incorporate the big picture into my day trades, it always goes poorly.

Keeping it simple stupid.

Doomers eat it again

The recovery in the equity indexes has been insanely powerful, just pole vaulted back up into all-time high territory in a couple of days.

People thought they were going to catch some sort of swing short and then go long, didn't work out for any of them.

I expect we get some shorter-term pullback, maybe 6800-7000, in which case I’ll add. If it just grinds up post-tariff style, I'll periodically add.

Seasonality

A short-term dip over the next couple weeks lines up with my summertime thesis.

As we get towards the end of Q2, I think the bid's going to dry up on risk. Right now is the time to grind, later in Q2 is maybe the time to chill.

BTC finally accepted 72k

Most optimistic thing I can say is it looks like we finally started to accept over 72k. I've said throughout this whole range that acceptance over 72k was the short-term signal.

This range since Feb looks like a reaccumulation zone, we've had a massive supply unwind, and it's pretty obvious in the flows that spot has changed hands. Demand for spot has skyrocketed since February.

I closed out my hedge at 65k. I do think it'll probably trade up a little higher and at some point I'll look to rehedge. Not trying to call 81.2k or whatever, trying to say some specific level would actually impede my judgment.

Need escalation this week

What's playing out is really classic auction market theory.

You break outside the range, build a composite, break again, build another composite, speed up.

The open interest build going into Friday was very concerning and that's been the primary reason we traded down. It's since unwound.

What I'm looking for this week is a break out of this composite and another increase in escalation.

If it stalls out and we start seeing slower moves, it's more likely we reaccept back into the range below, and that'll obviously bode poorly for anyone long.

That's potentially a reason to hedge my stack and avoid the drawdown.

On the VWAPs, we've clearly conquered the quarterly rolling and are starting to attack the yearly value area low. I want to see us get over 75k early this week as a reason to trade up into the 80s.

Positioning

Long Bitcoin, S&P, cash. Smaller positions: NQ, gold, silver, Remix, XLE, XLU. Slow and steady.

We're approaching a pretty big inflection point, and I have a bull case and a bear case.

Bet with the trend, not through it

The CME weekly trend is the exact inverse of the argument I made all through the bull market, where the weekly trend had to hold or the trend was cooked.

Same deal now, the bottom end of the weekly trend is around 79k. Highest EV bet as we get into it is to play with the trend, not counter trend.

I bet on what the market respects.

If we start trading through and disrespecting the weekly trend, the whole bear structure goes out the window, and it looks like 60k is our macro bottom.

30% is the extended zone

Throughout the bull we said how 20% corrections are the new 40%.

Averages around 20%, high end 30-33%.

We've done 21% here, 26% on the last swing, around 30% on the full rotation.

Not calling for an immediate nuke, but as BTC makes this big of a move it makes sense to consider the bear side of the book.

2024 yearly values at 80k

2024 value was goated last year.

Open of this year we traded down to the 2024 VWAP, selling got squeezed, tons of longs taken off that level.

Now the 2024 yearly value area high is coming into play around 80k.

We failed to hold new value, dropped back into previous yearly values, so rotating within old yearly values makes sense.

Spotting fragility in OI

Effort rewarded, we keep dancing.

Fragility comes when the driving flows subside or reverse.

Sailor ripping, STRC vehicle, no real spot selling in the books for weeks, all fine while it lasts.

But if spot decides to take profit, hedge stacks, or just stop buying, that OI from prep longs gets pressured and gets forced out.

We saw a lot of the open interest from the ramp up on Friday fully come off the books over the weekend, which bodes well for bulls.

76.4 is today's line

Since Friday we bled straight down for two days, fully retracing the pump, but with OI reset, positioning looks a lot healthier.

Weekly VAH is 76.4, that's the line today. Rejection here, momentum loss, absorption, all the things we talk about at pivots, opens 73.2 (previous week's VAL) and we've got four downside CME gaps from 73k all the way down to 66k.

Bull case and the trend rules

Q1 VWAP is the god VWAP.

We got rewarded effort through it, and that opens the quarterly value area high at 84k as the magnet. 84k still fits well within the weekly trend argument.

As long as the CME 4H and the cryptonative 12H trends hold it makes sense to expect continuation. Easiest confirmation a local top is when these are lost.

That said, I took a swing short around 77.8 Friday on momentum loss.

Back from 3 weeks in Japan and not much has changed.

Q1 2026 has to be the least I've traded in 8 or so years.

Got back on Apr 14 and the first thing I asked the timeline was: what coins are we buying that are going 200x this week?

Rhetorical. The answer is none.

But when the time comes to trade alts again, I’ll look to spaghetti.

Download my template here:

Tired of saying this but BTC remains in counter trend rally on the weekly trend.

Weekly trend sits ~80+. Some open air there if BTC can continue to trade above prev month high (~76) with constructive flow.

Some alts pressing up against 90d rvwap and prev month high too.

Zooming in. 3 day comp value ~74-75 needs to be protected if there's more juice for continuation. Suspect ugliness quick under this.

Prev month high ~76 is the line in the sand for BTC. Above with spot carry-through, there's room into the weekly trend in the 80s.

My thought process is very simple.

We're doing something different for the first time in 6 months, so maybe we get a larger rally than anything we've gotten in the past 6 months.

Reclaiming this trend and breaking out of the range opens the door for a move into 90k. That's where we can test the same trend that held as bottoms for 3 years — the D2 200 MAs.

The tell if we can't get there

It would actually be impressively weak if BTC can't catch a bid here. Surely we're deserving of a nice rally away from the range, right?

If Bitcoin can't rally to 90k as stocks see record-breaking strength into new ATHs, and instead deviates back inside the range, that would be a signal in itself.

It wouldn't be lag at that point. It would be sustained relative weakness.

Trust your system

The market seems fatigued with the constant stream of headlines.

"Breaking news," whether positive or negative, isn't moving price the way it did just a few weeks ago.

Besides some extreme geopolitical catalyst, it's probably safe to return to trusting your system. Prey on breakouts and reclaims of key levels. Look for outperformers.

Chop primary, reclaim is a pleasant surprise. Good luck to all.