High timeframe and approach

Rate cuts are now consensus after Powell spoke on Friday.

This doesn’t change my high timeframe plan — I expect a bullish Q4 but with time and price capitulation in between.

Remember, it’s common for the macro trend to be obvious, but being positioned for it isn’t easy because you’ll get these periods of chop that force people to give up out of boredom or lose all their money trying to swing trade the chop.

Do not be that person.

I’m staying consolidated mostly in BTC with a bit of ETH, SOL and DOGE, and I’ll be looking to add more to alts during moments of fear in the coming month.

Medium timeframe & levels

It looks like we’re going to build out a range between the two previous ranges in the 111k-115k region.

Pay attention to how this range builds out so you can buy the lows for a medium timeframe trade or even accumulate for a Q4 swing position.

Stay optimistic. Stay patient.

I’m on a plane right now but couldn’t bring myself to watch sitcom reruns, so here are my thoughts on the market right now…

BTC Plans

Yesterday, we saw massive liquidations with 7.8k in sell volume coming from binance perps in a single minute.

This move took Bitcoin down to sweep the Jackson Hole symposium lows from last week.

Key Technical Levels

• Yearly VWAP value area high: I want to see price stay above this level around 110k

• Weekly Trend (D1 100 EMA): Price finally tagged the weekly trend line (also at 110k), which is my highest-confidence level for swing plays

• CME Gap: A 5,000-point gap from 112k to 117k opened over the weekend. Based on 2025 data, weekend CME gaps fill 92% of the time within 7 days.

ETH Plans

• Attempting to build fresh value after the Jackson Hole god candle

• H4 (21 EMA) Trend holding

• H1 Trend suppressing price

• Must break H1 downtrend + reclaim local range around 4700

• If reclaimed, then rotation back up to 4850ish to close CME gap

The market’s choppy, so there’s not too much to do right now.

But if you must, here are some ideas…

SOL – TradFi games

I still think SOL runs as it’s the next coin for TradFi to play games with after ETH.

I’m already positioned from lower (as you can see from my impeccable drawing below), but if I were looking for a new position, I’d look for the breakout trade around 200.

Important: I’d only take this kind of trade if it’s showing relative strength on spaghetti.

ETH – Reclaim the lows, run it back turbo

To send this, I’d be looking for a reclaim of the lower timeframe range plus relative strength on spaghetti.

Friday's Fed catalyst

Powell hinted at rate cuts, sparking immediate bullish market sentiment.

Many traders had positioned defensively with short hedges before the announcement, but were forced to buy back their positions as price rallied against them, adding momentum to the upward move.

Technical breakdown

Bitcoin rallied back to $117,000 (the bottom of its previous trading range) but failed to reaccept back into it.

This rejection sent price lower into the $110-117K chop zone, a low-activity area between the two most recent ranges.

Key levels

This $110-117K range will likely see choppy, back-and-forth trading until Bitcoin either:

1. Breaks above $117K (bullish breakout)

2. Falls below $110.4K (bearish breakdown)

What’s next

Sunday's decline took out the previous low, a level not seen since early July.

Bitcoin is sitting near the bottom of the chop zone. I’m observing Monday’s range formation to set context for the rest of the week.

ETH successfully retested the $4k level as support, further validating the idea of expansion away from the 4-year range.

The H4 200 MAs confirmed this as the key region to monitor on higher timeframes, as discussed last week.

The reclaim of the local trend (H1 200 MAs) sparked the previous move. That same trend is being retested as support as I write this

As long as price holds above all key trends, I’ll assume further price discovery.

ETH's market leadership serves as a broader indicator of altcoin strength. This dynamic is further supported by the shift in Bitcoin Dominance, which is experiencing its strongest downtrend in three years.