High timeframe plans haven’t changed.

I expect a bullish Q4, but because this is consensus, there will probably be a fuck you move sometime late Q3 or early Q4.

This means I’m chilling in spot and waiting before sending large amounts of alts and perps.

Magstradamus

The 3 main scenarios in order of probability:

1. Shallow dip around where we are

2. Deeper dip toward 90k (would require major event like tariffs)

3. Previous range retest around 110k

Positioning & alts

Most of my port is in BTC, S&P, NASDAQ, and I’m adding on dips, including some ETH, SOL and DOGE.

I’m not interested in rotating deeper into lower cap alts until BTC shows momentum.

Staying locked in by taking intraday trades.

TLDR: Be optimistic and patient

HYPE: Week 3

Our last two bottoms on HYPE hit, so let's go for a third.

This week we have confluence across a few systems: midrange, daily trend, VWAPs.

Range — We've developed a clean range between 37 and 49, now retesting midrange:

Trend — H4 trend was picture perfect for playing continuation longs last week, until it was lost. Then we saw the classic H4 -> D1 gap fill. Now we’re sitting at the daily trend looking for a bounce.

VWAPs — Pay attention to the monthly and quarterly VWAPs here (blue and green respectively):

The monthly VWAP (mVWAP) portrays a perfect rotation: after accepting inside value, it rotated back to the mVWAP. The quarterly VWAP is flat, which reinforces the previous point that HYPE is in a range.

The Psychological Stages of a Trend

Every move up I’ve watched has followed the same psychological script:

Stage 1: Skepticism

The majority clings to the previous trend, dismissing new information. Only a vocal minority recognizes the shift, facing mixed reception as they advocate for change.

Stage 2: The Momentum Crescendo

Participants slowly acknowledge the new direction. Small initial bets grow larger as confidence builds, creating powerful feedback loops. Beware: fading sentiment works best in slowing momentum, not in growing momentum.

Stage 3: Divergence

Participants maintain confident bias even as momentum weakens. Rising confidence meets waning results. Watch for this divergence between momentum and confidence.

Stage 4: Correction

Pain

Takeaway

Bet heaviest early in trend.

Do not fade bullish sentiment if price and momentum support it.

Look for derisking signals when momentum slows and bullish sentiment grows.

Free alpha: market runs when I’m gone, dumps when I’m at the desk.

We’re getting a painful start to the week just as I arrive back from vacation. Alts are weak and BTC is sitting at range lows.

People have gotten smarter over time and are more cautious about YOLOing into alts while BTC is at range lows, because when BTC breaks out of ranges (up or down), alts break harder.

That said, here’s what I’m watching…

FARTCOIN

FARTCOIN is one I keep looking at because it’s sat on high-timeframe support.

If we get a market-wide selloff, I’ll be looking for a swing setup on FARTCOIN if it can reclaim while showing relative strength on spaghetti.

I think this will be a very good setup if it comes.

SOL

SOL is the next big liquid (i.e. large cap) position I want.

If we start seeing strength at or above the key support/resistance area I’ve marked in the chart, then I’m going to go for a big swing and assume new ATHs.

This setup depends on BTC holding the current range.

TLDR

Market is pretty dull. I’ll be keeping my eye on spaghetti all day. I may dabble onchain and do research to see what projects people are excited about.

au revoir

BTC is trading below the upper balance once again:

Sellers have been in control since August 13th:

BTC showed some low timeframe absorption in the hours following New York open. I’d want to see acceptance into upper balance for continued upside.

Getting above previous week low or previous day low would be a good start. If heavy resistance here, looking for a rotation lower or continued chop in the area between the two balances.

Quick notes:

• Monthly VWAP ~ 117.3

• Quarterly VWAP ~ 116.2

• Areas to observe: 116-117 and 110-112

• The Jackson Hole Symposium runs Aug 21-23, which is historically a volatile week

ETHUSD

A deeper short-term pullback seems likely given we've lost the local trend represented here by the H1 200 MAs.

This creates a snowball of weakness that sometimes leads to deeper pullbacks. Last time this happened, we tested the HTF trend at the H4 200 MAs.

However, most snowballs get crushed.

If we reclaim the local trend, we've likely found our daily higher low and can resume the uptrend into price discovery.

No reason to panic. This is normal market behavior.

ETHBTC

ETHBTC is showing true reversal signs after 2.5 years of -75% underperformance.

I think directionally proportional: substantial breakouts lead to substantial moves.

This approach has been fruitful this cycle, such as Bitcoin's multi-month range breakouts resulting in multi-month trends. I see no difference here.

As long as ETHBTC sustains this trend above the D2 200 MAs, I expect a significantly more favorable altcoin environment than anything we've seen this cycle. The H4 200 MAs also provide a respectable, actionable trend.