For weeks we’ve been talking about a late Q3 wipeout.

Looks like we just got it.

Now I’m looking for BTC to lock in a higher low in the 110-113 area before sending more risk on alts.

The stars are aligning, we just have to be a little more patient:

• Q3 summer chop ending

• Widespread bearish sentiment from big CT accounts

• BTC holding above 110k key support

TLDR; Watching if BTC locks in that higher low this week.

Core holdings: BTC SPX NAS SILVER ETH SOL DOGE

Late cycle risk management

You have two basic approaches to managing risk toward the end of a trend.

Which one are you? Does it fit your personality? Do you accept the consequences of each?

SOL

SOL continues trade cleanly — lose the H1 trend, then wait it out for the Daily trend (H4 100/200 EMA).

This follows one of my textbook rules — when you lose the trend that’s been carrying you, these are the most likely scenarios in order of probability:

1. Range

2. Tag the next trend lower

3. Reclaim current trend

The Daily trend is confluent with big high timeframe level at 210-220.

And the yearly and quarterly value area highs (VALs):

TLDR; This is an area of opportunity, and SOL treasury buying is a plus.

PUMP

PUMP is another coin that’s trading really cleanly.

We saw the H4 trend carry us all the way up, and when it was lost, we gapped down to the Daily.

Now I’m looking for a reclaim of 0.0062, which is both a MTF level (marked above) and the mVWAP (below).

Keep in mind, price will probably reject off the underside of H4 trend the first time, so I’d look for the compression between that and 0.0062 if given.

Breaking the H4 trend is key further upside. Next target would be around 0.0074.

A 2% drop on BTC in a matter of minutes usually doesn’t bode well for alts in the near-term.

That said, I do think the bulk of the move has happened, I’m just not rushing into a ton of positions at the moment.

My style is more play strength and reclaims rather than snipe pico bottoms.

I’m still holding my spot BTC and SOL bags.

Here’s where I’m setting alerts for new plays:

ETH

I like high-timeframe level reclaims so I’m setting alerts around 4260 on ETH.

btw I like keeping old ideas on charts (like the breakout above), because you can take the same trade idea twice, as long as it still makes sense.

I don’t agree with people saying you can’t.

XPL

XPL has been one of the strongest charts from the bottom.

The next trade is a breakout long. As always, I look for relative strength on spaghetti before longing this kind of setup.

BTC had beautiful rotation from the high side of lower balance to point of control of upper balance.

Then it rejected from balance and traded back toward the midpoint of the low volume node (LVN).

This is the first time since the beginning of the month that BTC has traded into monthly value.

Price spiked through the monthly VWAP (which also happens to be the anchored VWAP from the swing lows), and is under the previous week low, 7D and 90D rolling VWAPs.

This area is pivotal.

Decisive loss likely would lead to big moves down.

I’m currently trading reversion toward the upside and remaining agile (i.e. cutting fast on weak flow).

Focused more on longs.

I’m optimistic as long as BTC stays above the previous 8-month range and the very high timeframe H12 200 MAs.

That said, the market is showing some weakness, which is clearer on the ETH chart.

ETH is below a trend (H4 200 MAs) that it’s been above for the past 2 months.

However, ETH is still maintaining the previous 4-year range highs as support.

If ETH can reclaim the H4 200 MAs, then we can apply the same thinking to execute trades that previously led to 70%+ rallies.