Feels good to be back. Took the summer easy, which is pretty much what I do most years.

Over the next couple weeks I’m going to be ramping up my trading and really starting to hunt for the next big plays.

Looking for the SPX to bleed out a bit

We were macro uptrend respecters, we went into the summer multi-month range, and I think we’re going to see the resolution on that range pretty soon.

Momentum loss has continued to set in. What I would really love to see is the SPX bleed out over the next week or two, back into maybe the midpoint of the range or the range high. It doesn’t have to be a dramatic pullback.

I think it’s probably set to pull back a little further as we progress through the month, and hopefully that’s setting us up for that big springboard play for a massive rally in Q4.

The TradFi watchlist

Most things I’m interested in buying look pretty heavy right now.

SpaceX, I want to see it pull back at least to $120 and then I could start shoving some chips in. I don’t want to be buying at $140-150 unless I think the uptrend is really confirmed.

Google could pull back into the direction of $300 as a potential bid zone.

Apple maybe a little below $300, $280 to 290.

Nvidia is a similar argument, maybe a 3-5% pullback and then it’s a bid.

If I could get Shopify down into the $180 range, that would be ideal.

Hood could be really shallow, it just had this massive leg up, so $115 and I might start bidding that up.

Bitcoin: the fake out I want to see

The whole conversation was summertime compression leading to a fakeout rally. It rallied a lot higher than I thought it would, all the way up to 80k instead of stopping in the 70s.

If we’re just trading upwards going into the start of Q4 and there’s no pullback at any point, that is actually really sus and would make me think we’re going to end up seeing downtrend continuation play out.

I want that springboard setup where we pull back and make a macro higher low. This is the classic fakeout move to wipe people who are trying to be long for this. Set your alerts.

Simple levels on the macro: 80k is resistance right now, 60k is support, in between is more or less chop. If we look weak below 60k, the bull thesis is probably dead.

Eyes on the range

My main focus is getting spot and swing positioning for Q4. I’m not going to be prioritizing the low-timeframe day trading as much.

One of the most likely things you should be expecting is continuation of this range that forms a larger momentum loss pattern before we can potentially trade down.

Either we get a really shallow move, or we dip below the range, maybe into the lower 70s, and that could be your higher low if things are super bullish.

If we’re being more realistic, it’s probably more likely we pull back just below 70k into the mid/upper 60s.

These are the pullback zones I’d be looking to send swing longs.

If 77k doesn’t hold, I’m looking for the 60s.

Cash is about to get deployed

Core positioning is still Bitcoin, SPX and cash. I’m looking to start allocating the cash I’ve been accumulating over the past year aggressively, so you’ll hear more detail on that soon.

Best of luck out there. Cheers.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: BTC swing long on the pullback

Entry — the lower 70s if things are super bullish, more realistically just below 70k into the 60s

Timeframe — Q4 positioning, swing not day trade

Setup: SPX bigger picture buy

Trigger — a bleed out back to the midpoint of the range or the range high, it doesn’t have to be dramatic

Timeframe — pullback over a few weeks, springboard into Q4

So first of all, pat yourself on the back if you guys stuck around this entire bear market

I’ve been preaching this all year: the people that are going to make the most money are those who were locked in in the bear market.

I’ve been away for a little bit, about 10 days. Feeling really refreshed and glad that we have great conditions again, every single day there’s a 10-20% altcoin runner on perps, not to mention how crazy on-chain has been.

Now I’m making plans to get the rest of my stables into the market on the next opportunity.

Crabby, junky and range bound

Bitcoin, as I tell you guys all the time, often puts in a huge move over a few days, and then just goes back to being crabby and range bound.

The last thing I said to you guys was right around composite value area low (aka range low): unrewarded effort at 77k will lead you to a rotational environment, effort rewarded below 77k will give you that daily trend tag that I’ve been looking for.

Front run the obvious level

The next thing we want to talk about is a little bit of the game theory.

The most obvious wick on the chart is 75.5k, and I think several traders have been highlighting this looking for a sweep.

You’ll front run the obvious level that people want. And if we’re going to get it, we probably won’t get just this clean, tidy little 500 point sweep. We’ll probably nuke through it by like a thousand dollars or something like that.

Coming into Friday, we got a big nuke into that composite value area high. It’s been three days since then and we’re still trading back within that value. When we get those perfect retests, it’s more conducive to a choppy range bound environment rather than an immediate continuation.

The orange box highlighted at the top, that is the local point of breakdown. When we get a strong spot bid through 81k, I think we’re ready for the next leg up. For now, this is kind of the line in the sand.

I believe the natural rotation should be back down towards the daily trend. I’m not going to really be able to predict how this plays out, but based on gut feel or experience, if we come down to this daily trend, yes, it may give you another bounce, but ultimately I think this will give us that deeper sweep we’ve been looking for. That’ll be the opportunity I take to deploy the rest of my remaining stables.

This is a failed breakout. Classic auction market theory says if you fail to expand from one end, you should naturally test the other end of value, right? So I think another rotation is in play right here, 76.9k or 77k, and once again I think that would be a value buy.

Alts I’m eyeing if we get that

VVV has been phenomenally strong. If VVV got back into the daily trend, once again I think that’s a good opportunity to pick up either perp swing exposure, add to spot, whatever it may be.

The next one I’d be looking at would be HYPE. It’s grinding up. If there was any kind of wipe that came into the daily trend, I would be taking advantage of that one as well.

Pump fun is the shovel bet

This is a trade I took last night, pretty late, after coming home from my nephew’s birthday party.

I was very optimistic on price, just not on time. The market had other plans, obviously.

When we’re moving down in the daily trend like this and we’re capped by the 4-hour trend, for me that is a really clean opportunity for that compression trade I talk about. Invalidation is acceptance below the daily trend, or any kind of impulse below the daily trend. As long as we’re holding that, the compression here can lead to a pop.

Waking up to 15-20% on Pump fun is awesome. I took 50% profits on this one already and I’ll probably just leave the rest as a runner. If it wants to fully round trip on me, so be it.

Plans on this one are probably to pick up some spot off the daily trend, not a full bag, but get chips on the table. If we can get a weekly trend, that’s where I would full stack a large position.

It’s the whole argument of when there’s a gold rush, go sell shovels, and Pump fun is that shovel bet that I really, really like.

I don’t need a 365-day rolling flip

Last thing I want to mention, this was the point of breakdown that I highlighted all the way back in June.

We’re trading above the weekly trend now. If we can dip back down into the weekly and deem this as support, for me that’s all the confirmation I need, right? I’m not really a confirmation trader, but if we do get a dip, I will be a frontline buyer.

If we dip back down and we get back into this value, that is enough for me to say, yeah, this is legitimately the start of an uptrend. I don’t need a 365-day rolling flip. That’s just inevitable, it’ll happen at some point, whenever Bitcoin feels like it.

Take care.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: BTC rotation buy

Entry — 76.9k or 77k, composite value area low; a deeper sweep through 75.5k is where I deploy the rest of my stables

Setup: BTC continuation

Trigger — a strong spot bid through 81k and I think we’re ready for the next leg up

Setup: PUMP spot pickup

Entry — some spot off the daily trend, not a full bag, but get chips on the table. If we can get a weekly trend, that’s where I would full stack a large position

Setup: VVV daily trend add

Entry — if VVV gets back into the daily trend, I’m picking up perp swing exposure or adding to spot

I’ve only got two positions open, a PUMP short and my Zcash long (as of this writing). I had seven positions last week at one point, which was absolutely wild.

When Bitcoin’s ranging, I turn my attention to alts.

Trade the extremes

We had the breakout at 66k, and now we’re in this consolidation range up in the 80s to 76k.

We’ve got a range here, right? Really simple. I typically take trades at the extremes, and I rarely play the mid-range unless there’s a strong breakout. Here, we’re just meandering around, not really doing much.

For Bitcoin itself, I’m not interested in taking anything in this consolidation, there’s literally zero point. We’re holding above the mid-range, which is really good, until we start losing it. Then that could be a signal to, not cut necessarily, but certainly shift your mindset to taking profits on some of the rotations.

If we fade this again and try and break out for the fourth time and fail to, then I might take a little hedge here and just short.

New shiny shit beats old and boring

I want the new shiny shit, so stuff like CASHCAT and the Robinhood ecosystem needs to be high on that radar.

DOGE, the OG meme coin, had a nice move, don’t get me wrong, but it’s 17%, whereas USELESS has gone 250%, 300%, whatever it is, CASHCAT similar. It’s just got more propensity in my mind to run big.

This here is clearly a range. I want to see us breaking out, I want to see some relative strength, I want to see us break this diagonal downtrend, really simple stuff. Until that changes, there’s no point in trading this asset.

I’ve stuck an alert on. I’m letting the trade come to me.

Probably goes to $100, but I can’t trade it

The Hype trade we did on stream didn’t do the old classic rocket, it just keeps going.

I’m awful at trading anything that is going basically diagonally, it’s just chop, chop, chop. Where’s my invalidation entering here? It’s probably the previous low, but it’s not clean. It probably goes to $100, but at this moment in time I can’t make a good trade out of it.

If we do get some form of nice consolidation up here, a range forming, and we sell off and reclaim that range, that is a really good entry. Or vice versa, a push to the range highs and a breakout.

A million dollars of volume for zero money

PONS is a really interesting one. I was actually scalping a load of it yesterday, I took about a million dollars of volume and made zero, zero money. This is why I don’t trade when I’m hungover, tired, or both, which is what I was yesterday.

I longed it, closed it, and then longed a bit more, got rekt, and basically gave it all back. A lot of volume for not much, all while I was playing World of Warcraft and trying to throw up.

For a swing on this, I need to see some strength, structure change, and change of momentum. As I’m saying this, the momentum is all to the downside.

What we need to see is a break of diagonals, a reclaim of previous lows. We’ve also hit some lows in terms of RSI on the 15 minute, so it does give you a little divergence. I’m not actively trading that div. Once again, I’m going to stick an alert on.

Beta works both ways

I want to be on the long side of USELESS, it’s one of the strongest assets out there.

We’re in a pretty tight range, and if we sell off and then reclaim, that’s equally another good setup.

All you’re doing is looking for some relative strength on low timeframes, and at the minute it just isn’t there, same with CASHCAT.

Everyone’s like, oh Charlie, that’s a bad sign that they’re the weakest on spaghetti. Yes, but beta works both ways, remember? You have the huge upside, but you also have the huge downside.

When the downside rotations happen, they’re painful, but when the upside rotation happens, they rip.

It’s not a guarantee, and because we’ve broken high timeframe structure, it’s less likely. But it’s where I’m going to be putting my focus, because typically strength leads to strength.

Zcash is absolutely flying

Here you’ve got this parabolic curve, buyers stepping in, continuing to step in, and then acceleration. And we never retest.

I pulled this number out of my ass, $1300 for Zcash. Why $1300? It was just a continuation of the former expansion, almost matching that.

From an intraday point of view, we’ve held the mid-range, we broke out, deviated. From that range I think we probably get a sell off, maybe even into this low, and then that will be the trigger to go long again.

But there’s no real setup at the minute, I’m going to have to watch this a little bit more for the PA to develop.

Let the trades come to us

When things have distributed, like PONS, CASHCAT, and are now in a downtrend, I’m just waiting patiently for the market to let me in when it wants to. I’m not going to try and force my way into a market that doesn’t want me.

TLDR look for range reclaims and range breakouts. CASHCAT, PONS and USELESS are the trifecta I’d be paying most attention to in terms of trend changes, and then obviously Zcash.

We’re just going to sit tight, sit pretty for now and let the trades come to us.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: BTC hedge short

Trigger — a fourth failed breakout attempt at the range highs; I might take a little hedge short here

Setup: HYPE long

Trigger — a range forms up here, then a sell off and reclaim; or a push to the range highs and a breakout

Setup: ZEC re-entry long

Trigger — a sell off from this range, maybe even into the low, then that’s my trigger to go long again

Target — $1300, a continuation of the former expansion

BTC is pretty straight forward here imo.

Has been consolidating since August 20th so there’s a clean range/value to trade around. So far supply keeps stepping in 80k+ and demand ~76k.

Below 76k

If acceptance below 76k, the 30d rolling VWAP (rvwap) is in the 74s and there’s imbalance left behind on the way up.

That can wash out some positioning quick and we wait to see if there’s any bid that steps in to prevent a deeper retracement.

Above 80k

Break above and observe spot aggressiveness, you look for a quick reprice and acceptance above the 365d rvwap.

NEAR and PENDLE breaking out of developing yearly

NEAR seems mispriced considering the privacy narrative and ZEC getting all the ballistic attention.

PENDLE is also interesting.

Both contingent on BTC not deciding to shit the bed, and not accepting back below the yearly band.

HYPE is the gauge

HYPE had that shake out into developing yearly before the impulse past ATH. Typically a break of ATH and acceptance above = another 40-50% because price discovery = no historical reference to use.

HYPE has left monthly value. Acceptance back below the prior monthly opens up the low to mid $70s as the first area of interest, and that lines up with prior resistance.

Considering it’s been a leader it’s actually the best gauge for other alts and the environment as well. A little cooldown wouldn’t break trend unless there’s the off chance BTC breaks down badly.

Setup

Setup: BTC below 76k

Trigger — acceptance below 76k

Target — the 30d rvwap in the 74s, then we wait to see if there’s any bid that steps in to prevent a deeper retracement

Setup: BTC above 80k

Trigger — break above 80k, then observe spot aggressiveness

Target — a quick reprice and acceptance above the 365d rvwap

I really deeply believe that a great way to gain a lot of knowledge is in the benefit of hindsight.

This is a trade review from June 23rd, 2025, a lengthy discussion about Ethereum and the high conviction thesis as to why I was able to target $4,000+ before any of that happened.

By the time I recorded this intro in September 2025, Ethereum was trading at $4,500 and had just made new all-time highs a month earlier.

Obviously I did not know what the market would actually go on to do, even when or if I got my triggers. I didn’t know when bottoms would be put in.

Confluence

I use anything where I have the ability to make an argument from: a significant level in this region, a high time frame trend, a very high time frame trend.

But context is key.

We saw a four-month long negative 65% downtrend finally start to reverse, and we acknowledged it. We said, hey, don’t write it off. This is bullish.

But still, there were larger bearish arguments residing on the chart above our heads. So what additional context did I use to justify my bullish arguments?

Reclaim the 4H 200s and we’re probably going to $4k

This time around, it was simple. If we were to reclaim the 4H 200s, it’s not just that we’re reclaiming the 4H 200s, it’s also that we’re deviating back inside of this range.

The simple assumption from there, from a range trader’s standpoint, would be that range lows go to mid-range go to range highs.

But wait a minute, if we’re going to go to range highs and we’re back above high time frame trends, then the 200 dailies, we should be well above them.

In hindsight, once again in hindsight, this was actually a bullish retest of these 200 weeklies.

Not just, oh, we’re kind of trading above them, a breakout trade, yay, woohoo. No, we would be very strongly and very convincingly shifting that trend as well.

So as opposed to, oh yay, we reclaimed the 4H 200s, but you still have to worry about final boss, final boss, final boss. No. Now it would be, oh yay, we reclaimed the 4H 200s, we’re probably going to go to $4k.

Snowball into a snowman.

It didn’t come out of nowhere

Sometimes I hear people say something like, “Man, this Ethereum rallied. That’s pretty crazy. It just came out of nowhere.”

No, it didn’t.

It came after two weeks of having flipped a four-month long negative 65% downtrend. It is impossible to be caught off guard by normal market movements.

And what you need to realize is every single market movement is inherently normal. It’s just your job to be able to express the courage to actually execute.

If you know why you entered in the first place, 4H 200s, Ethereum market structure shift on the daily, etc., etc., then you also understand why you would want to get out of Ethereum.

And if you know why the hell you wanted to get out, you absolutely know why you want to get back in.

Wouldn’t you be eager to jump back into that trend when all of a sudden the next time around the context changes dramatically?