Patience and optimism as we wait for the return of volatility

High timeframe

The structural bottom is forming nicely on Bitcoin while sentiment on Twitter is abysmal.

This is exactly what we want to see for our HTF bull thesis to play out. Boring markets lull people to sleep… then volatility returns.

If we get any wipeout move at the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4, that's a classic buy-the-dip play for a bullish Q4.

Medium timeframe

The CPI on Thursday is either going to drive prices lower for my swing long setup, or it creates a higher base before Q4.

I'll be watching for a rejection around 112-113K, then hopefully a higher low before breaking through.

Key levels:

• Support: 110k, 100k, 90k

• Resistance: 112-113k, 118k, 120k

Alts

Still light, sprinkling some SOL and DOGE buys here and there.

Not too interested in more ETH buys as I think BTC steals the show on the next leg up. I’ll be eyeing memes once BTC momentum is clear.

TLDR

Structural bottom forming, buying dips on BTC & equities while waiting for Q4 volatility return. Patience and optimism.

BTC

We are in an opportunity period. Despite the FUD you may see on Twitter, HTF weekly trends are bullish:

And even though we’re seeing bearish chop on the Daily timeframe, BTC is carving out a classic rounded bottom with momentum loss on the downside — exactly how BTC builds lows.

As we get down to the H4 and H1 timeframes we see balanced, rangebound structure with support around 108 and resistance around 113.

Price is currently at the local range high, which overlaps with the Daily trend (H4 200 EMA). I’d rather send longs closer to the range lows than top blast near the highs.

Setup I want to take:

Long around 108/109k, derisk around 112/113 (I rarely short in HTF bull trends).

If price accepts outside of the 108-113 range I expect continuation to:

1. 115/116 above (CME gap fill + quarterly VWAP) or

2. 102/104 below (May/June range high + D 200 EMA)

SOL

The Daily and H1 trends setups have been printing lately. Daily trend (H4 100/200 EMA) provides consistent bounces:

And H1 trend breaks have consistently reset price back to the daily trend — 4 for 4 lately:

Setup I’m eying:

• Long at daily trend support

• Use H1 trend loss as momentum exit signal

see you in the next week

BTC is still holding above the previous balance. I’m eying mean reversion opportunities in the highlighted pivotal balance:

BTC has been bearish on the H4 since mid-August. A key region to flip for bulls is 113-115:

CPI this Thursday likely means volatility. I expect more clarity 24-48 hours post-release.

See you next edition.