Shout out to everybody for a strong close to the quarter.

Fantastic opportunity, portfolios just grinding upwards, and I’ve been sending a lot of trades here the past couple weeks.

If you don’t feel like you’re doing that well, don’t sweat it. I still think we’re really early into this and there’s going to be a lot of opportunity to come.

Pull back or trade up, I’m happy either way

Q4 is right around the corner and we have midterms in November.

I could see a scenario where markets trade up at the beginning of October and we get some sort of shakeout by the end of October.

If equities and crypto pull back, I’m going to look at that as an opportunity to bid things on my list. If they just trade up from here, I’d be happy with that too.

Hoping HOOD keeps puking

I did start a HOOD bag and a GOOGL bag.

I’m hoping HOOD keeps pulling back, and then I’m going to add as we trade down towards $100.

On SpaceX, I want to see it round out and trade back in the direction of the swing low, and then I’ll probably start a bag down there.

Is this the only impulse we get?

I’m hoping that this range we’ve been building out between 85k and 82k is price building a base above 80k resistance before another impulse up.

This matters because this was a ridiculously strong impulse from 60k to 80k.

If this is the only impulse that we’re going to get, from 75k to 85k, that’s pretty weak.

I want to see continuation. Otherwise this looks like momentum loss, and it makes us much more likely to do the macro higher low scenario toward the 60s.

2 scenarios

Scenario 1: trade higher, build a range, sweep the range, buy it and trade up from there.

Scenario 2: we continue to trade down from where we’re at and just build out the macro swing low. Structurally we’ve made fresh highs and gotten through the 80k macro resistance, but we don’t have a macro higher low yet.

I don’t want the second scenario, but I’m prepared for it.

Right now I want to be aggressively taking profits with any leverage trading, not riding them forever.

So I’m spot chilling and waiting for the opportunity to send the big leverage plays on a wipeout.

I have this whole fakeout play that I’ve been shilling you guys on for many months now.

If this macro fakeout plan does materialize, a lot of market participants are going to get clapped in the process, and that will create a lot of opportunity for us.

90% win rate on Solana

I’ve been going really hard onchain.

I’ve not hit any massive runners or anything, but my win rate has been really high.

I only mention that because I don’t consider myself to be an onchain guy, which means pay attention to onchain when the market is risk-on.

Not interested in round tripping

Over the next couple weeks I’m going to be really focused on playing a bit of defense, because my port over the past two months is up a considerable amount, and I’m not interested in round tripping it.

I’m extremely optimistic on everything I’ve been talking about, but I’m going to be sending tactical hedges here or there along the way to make sure that I’m not getting clobbered.

Good luck out there. Let’s print.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: BTC long into the range

Entry — longs as you trade down into 82k, pretty high EV

Timeframe — medium timeframe

Setup: HOOD add on the pullback

Entry — I’m going to add as we trade down towards $100

We opened up the week straight down.

The Asia and London sessions were selling spot and opening shorts overnight, taking us below the previous week’s value low.

We’re taking back those regions of higher volume as we speak, right at the previous week’s value low.

How I’m trading BTC

Anytime Bitcoin is in a rangebound environment and we open up our new week, I think the easiest trades for Mondays are just to play around the previous week’s values.

If we can get back above, call it 83.5k, 83.6k, it opens up the other side of value.

We spent a lot of time getting rejected by the previous week’s VWAP, so obviously that would be target one, and then previous week’s value high.

If we can’t hold this overnight low, the next level is around 81.5k.

70k feels cheap

We’ve talked a lot about the 87k level already.

This was our two-month comp, first test, best test rejection, and I believe that if we can get a strong, taker bid through it, we’ll get to 92k very, very quickly.

87k was also the 2025 yearly value low, so a strong bid through it opens up the other side of 2025 value, first 99k and then 111k, well within reach for Bitcoin.

But we’ve had such a strong move already, 40% over about a month.

Bitcoin loves to put the majority of its repricing in very quickly and then kind of chop around and do nothing.

So I would not be surprised if we spent the next few months just ranging here in the 80ks.

Notice the element of psychology here.

When price is trading in the 50s and 60s for a long time, 70k starts to feel very expensive, right? You say to yourself, man, I don’t want to buy 70k, I don’t want to chase.

Right now it’s the exact opposite.

When you’re hearing 80s all the time and you get those dips into the 70s, suddenly 70 mentally reprices for you and starts feeling cheap. And that’s what builds steam in a bull market.

Not calling cycle top for this yet

I covered 60-70% of my cost basis for VVV, so I’m sitting in a comfortable spot position.

I still think this is probably one of the leaders of the early cycle, and I really don’t see this cycle topping here, especially because of all the momentum it’s had.

But it doesn’t mean that it can’t start having a kind of multi-month consolidation because of how much it’s pumped.

So I wouldn’t mind if this thing chilled out, ranged, allowed the weekly trend to catch up, and then we can rebid off the weekly trend.

Another leg coming on PUMP?

PUMP looks great.

We’re trading back towards the highs at this moment.

If there’s any type of stall out at the prior high, I want to see a comp form, trends catch up and momentum reset.

Then look for strong dip buying opportunities.

VVV was a very similar situation: it had a big bleed, pushed back up and consolidated for a bit before the next leg.

So if PUMP builds out a little bit of a comp towards the highs, it would give me a lot of confidence that another leg is coming.

Not the best compounding positioning of all time

I closed out 10% of my STONK bag pretty much at the pico top, and as we started breaking down around $0.30, I closed out even more.

Then I just kind of put a feeler position out to buy some STONK back at the 12-hour trend.

We’re trading below it right now, which is really important because this is the trend that carried STONK for a 40x, so that being lost is a signal to me that this thing could trade all the way down to the recent lows.

It’s obviously not the best compounding positioning of all time, which is why I’m happy that I didn’t pick up a boatload.

I’m going to hope this trades back down to $0.15 or $0.16, in which case I will look to bid up a lot more and have that full size back.

I want to have exposure to this narrative, and I like the fact that it’s low market cap early in the cycle.

If this thing just starts bleeding out below $0.15, I would not hold on to that.

I was wrong about this one

I missed the NEAR move.

A lot of the homies were very bullish on NEAR, so I want to say congratulations to you guys.

If and when we get a strong structural pullback into the weekly trend and SR confluence, I would love to pick up a spot bag or maybe a 2x lev position.

This could take multiple months to play out. For now, just keep it simple and watch the trends.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: BTC through 87k

Trigger — a strong, solid taker-sided bid through 87k

Target — 92k very, very quickly, then 99k and 111k

Setup: STONK reload

Entry — back down at $0.15 or $0.16, where I will look to bid up a lot more and have that full size back

Invalidation — if it just starts bleeding out below $0.15

PUMP is pumping into the highs, but it’s difficult to take a trade here.

If we get a range here, maybe we can play a bit of PUMP.

So if we range here, we sell off, we get a reclaim and then we go again, that’s probably actually one of the much better setups out there, purely because it’s had relative strength.

Rotations on an intraday basis

With NEAR we’re entering this region here, these big red lines, and if you look at them from a weekly perspective, it’s pretty significant.

Realistically it’s a good place for it to pull back a little bit or at least consolidate.

What you can see through these rotations is that the sellers are starting to get more momentum, and when you start seeing that momentum shift, you normally get a pretty deep pullback just to flush the leverage.

So be careful on leverage this week.

On that bombshell, I will love you and leave you all.

On the high timeframe (HTF), BTC has broken out of an HTF pivot.

Keeping it simple for now.

This is the line in the sand. As long as BTC can trade above it = risk on, or looking for opportunities to the upside.

Acceptance back below (acceptance means watching flow and time spent under) = cautious.

Zooming in a bit, this is a classic consolidation breakout, with the consolidation being ~a month long.

Consider a potential scenario where there’s a flush into the high 70s. The manner in which this occurs and the behavior that follows will be something to keep an eye on (IF this happens).

Create a watchlist of strong alts. Just scan through everything, throw on VWAPs (in particular weekly, monthly and yearly) and observe where tickers are trading relative to these, as well as how each alt performs when BTC shows weakness.

You can also use the XO Macro Trend indicator or any EMA/trend indicator. Walk through the daily, 4H and 1H trends to see which trend is getting respected/invalidated.

Nothing’s changed on Bitcoin. The D2 200 MAs are still the line in the sand.

If we were to pull back into this region, it’s totally fine. There’s no reason to freak out or throw in the towel and say, “Oh my god, the top is in.”

Recently people were freaking out over the bond yield curves: “Bond yield curves going up long term is bearish for risk assets!”

Wow. Amazing.

Except there’s one issue: bond yield curves have been going up, and so has the market.

Smart sounding bearish arguments

There’s always going to be a smart sounding bearish argument.

I literally have a daily market update from mid August that says if you put a gun to my head, I imagine we consolidate underneath the D2 200 MAs on Bitcoin and then break out and leg higher.

As far as I’m concerned, that’s exactly what’s happened.

It is the market’s job to prove me wrong.

We’re even willing to bid boomer coins

I’m in Dogecoin.

The 200 daily moving averages are undeniably clean, very clear.

If anything, this is looking like a breakout, pullback, retest even more than I thought it was initially.

I made a claim that when Dogecoin breaks out, it is the best representation that the altcoin market is about to get a lot easier, and you’re going to see more exaggerated altcoin movements across the board.

If all of a sudden we’re bidding Dogecoin for the first time in a year, then the market must be willing to bid literally anything.

So I’m going to go ahead and say that I’m right. Dogecoin peeked its head out above the 200 dailies.

FET actually looks nice

200 dailies reclaiming the range lows is a very clear trigger for me.

I’m interested in any pullbacks into this region: range lows, 2H or 3H 200s confluent with the 200 dailies, and presumably a higher low on the weekly.

This is the best place to find support and build a foundation for the next leg higher on a much longer timeframe.