We have the FOMC on Wednesday, and I’m not going to try to anticipate what he’s going to say.

I don’t really care what he says at the end of the day, I just know that Wednesday will probably have a little bit of extra volatility that I can day trade around.

Short-term defensive, but buying some alts

I’m leaning defensive, so I have a hedge on my port and I’m actually even net short because I have a swing short on Bitcoin.

But, I’m aggressively buying up spot positions, whether that’s Bitcoin or a couple of the strong altcoins that I’m interested in.

We are now building this little micro range post the weekend below the composite structure.

So the two plans are either we survive the FOMC sell pressure, probably get one more stab into the lows and then reclaim.

Or we see the continuation of this down move, actually lose some of these local supports at 80k and trade down in direction of 75k where there are a bunch of single prints, fair value gaps, whatever you want to call it.

This is the area where I want to look to aggressively bid.

Gun to head, I think the lower move is more probable, but gotta be prepared for all scenarios.

Hoping we get one more sell wave where people can celebrate about being bearish, and then we can leave them in the dust with a V recovery.

Altcoins are a lot more entertaining

All the strong alts have basically the same kind of structuring, they’re starting to carve out these macro rounded out bottoms.

So I ended up buying some PUMP.

Similar argument with Zcash. Its relative strength has started to come back basically ever since we had this leg up, so I added to my spot ZEC.

Alt watchlist

PUMP, ZEC, PEPE, HYPE, NEAR, LIT, ENA, VVV, INJ

Cheers.

Months ago we called out 87k as pretty strong resistance. And that’s where we rejected.

Now we lost the daily trend about a week or two ago and been crabbing ever since.

So the next target in the trend-based system would be the weekly trend in the mid 70s, which is confluent with range lows, the 365-day rolling VWAP, and the anchored VWAP from the lows.

We’re only about 3% away from there, so it could come in one New York session.

Risk often bottoms first

Altcoins are already at pretty prime locations to bid.

A dynamic I talk to you guys about very often, and something that I think is an edge that a lot of people fade, is that higher risk sells off first and often bottoms first (alts before BTC).

It feels like crap, right?

I’m liking where ETH is at. It’s holding the bottom end of the range and weekly trend.

ETH bled, or nuked should I say, to $2,400 on October 8th. Twenty days later, we’re only about 70 points lower.

It’s basically hanging around the exact same levels for the past month, just kind of crabbing downward. So it feels like crap, right?

If ETH wants to bleed out with Bitcoin for a couple more percent, the natural target for ETH is going to be its yearly VWAP around $2,200.

This is also the previous year value area low.

I think the confluence of the yearly VWAP plus the previous year value area low is a giga strong bid for ETH, especially if it lines up with Bitcoin tagging its weekly trend.

I already grabbed a tiny bit of ETH exposure over this weekend.

Too good of a location for me to fade

If you put the whole thing into perspective, something like Hyperliquid has bled 24% over 31 days into the weekly trend, a range low sweep, and prior all-time highs.

Very high quality setup here for reversion.

I bought some right around $76. If it comes a little bit lower, I’ll probably add, but I’m mostly treating this like a trade. Not targeting $200.

On most alts, we’re teetering between A-tier and B-tier setups.

The S-tier setups are just a little bit lower. Those should come if Bitcoin does roll over that final leg to the weekly trend, but you need to have a plan either way.

Hope you guys have a good week.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: BTC at the weekly trend

Trigger — pre-FOMC de-risking could take us down to the weekly trend

Entry — around 77k, full value rotation on the previous month’s values, confluent with the weekly trend

Timeframe — the next one or two days before FOMC

Setup: ETH adds

Entry — if we get $2,200 or $2,100, the yearly VWAP plus previous year value area low, I will probably add

Outlook for the week is pretty simple, I’m going to Disneyland with the fam.

So naturally you’ll get the highest volatility we’ve seen in months.

Hovering at range lows

Bitcoin looks like ass unless it reclaims 81k, in which case I think we get a nice rotation.

I think general risk appetite is going to be determined by Bitcoin as usual, and since it’s hovering at range lows looking like it wants to shit the bed, it’s a great time to be dialed in.

It’ll either be free short season on everything, or a nice rotational long to range highs on a lot of alts like NEAR.

Alts are pretty piss in general. Most are just mean reverting bouncing balls in terms of relative strength, but there are some that stand out to me.

If we start seeing Bitcoin push, PUMP could be a nice long.

Trades either way on NEAR

NEAR is one of the best in terms of a setup either way imo.

1. We reclaim. We play the long. If that fails, as in, we cannot reclaim $4.60 convincingly and we sell off... there is option 2...

2. We either reclaim and fail, or we simply fail now... either way the entry here is with the trend, i.e. only enter when it starts moving down and you have an invalidation.

Keep it high on the radar

Last coin was USELESS.

I think the rotation was good, and after a second equal low following the break of a medium timeframe downtrend, it’s a good place to start looking for longs, i.e. you have the confirmation that buyers are stepping in.

Hard for me to justify just buying spot with everything else going on, and it is literally THE WORST coin on this rotation... but typically high beta either way means it should be interesting at some point, so keep it high on the radar.

TLDR still spot long Bitcoin and XMR, would look for trades either way on NEAR, keeping an eye on PUMP + USELESS.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: NEAR long

Trigger — we reclaim $4.60 convincingly, we play the long

Target — a nice rotational long to range highs

Setup: NEAR short

Trigger — we either reclaim $4.60 and fail, or we simply fail now

Entry — with the trend, only enter when it starts moving down and you have an invalidation

BTC is down a grand total of ~9% from the current highs.

However, the sentiment has been shifting more negative by the day. I suspect this is because of the significant alt pullback vs BTC’s recent weakness.

BTC monthly value shows value gradually shifting lower, which means sellers have been in control.

The passive bid was stepping in at the 80k floor, but there was no sustained buying on the aggressive spot side, which is a sign the floor gives way.

We’re accepting back inside the 1 SD yearly band (right image).

For now, I’m keeping an eye on 82-83k and the mid-70s as the potential range development. Looking for BTC to develop a floor and for the flow to show a flip, in terms of sustained buying.

For alts, I believe we’re towards the beginning of the sideways/bottoming process.

There is obviously further downside in the books if BTC legs down again, but over the next few weeks, I will be keeping an eye on strong alts.

Most are down 30-50%, so they’re in the discount area where you want to start paying attention.

Just be patient through this period of uncertainty, make sure you have plans on what you’re looking to buy for longer-term holds, and don’t get sucked into the black hole of full-blown doomer sentiment.

Please do not lose your mind off of Bitcoin trading between 80k to 84k in the span of a few weeks.

The market has the ability to do this, and it could absolutely just continue higher if it so desired.

Is that going to happen? My inclination is to say yes, because that’s what my analysis says.

But is it absolutely going to happen? No, not necessarily.

I was wrong at the very lows

You want to know what I was saying after FTX in 2022? I wasn’t saying the bottom is in.

I was saying, “Hey guys, we broke down below this level. We’re below a five-month range. So maybe we’re going to keep breaking down the way that we have been for the past year.”

Oh, just kidding. I’m wrong. After spending three weeks trading inside of a 3% range, we are now deviating back inside of a five-month range.

What do we think happens? Range lows, go to mid-range, go to range highs. That’s a nice 30 to 40% movement.

Wait a minute, we’re above all key trends again. Maybe just be bullish for, I don’t know, however long until the market proves us wrong.

The point is: If you’re wrong at the lows, you can simply flip bullish when the analysis changes. Be objective.

It’s not 4H 200s go brr

INJ is coming off of a very key daily or even weekly resistance level.

It’s not 4H 200s go brr. So when I look at INJ along the 4H 200s, even with local support confluence, there’s not really a setup there for me.

My backup plan for something like INJ this time around? I’m actually going to look for the deeper pullback into the daily 200 MAs. I’m going to look for a retest of maybe this inflection point.

If we get there, great. Then I was looking for it.

But also, if it never happens because INJ is just that strong, won’t there be another opportunity?

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: INJ long (backup plan)

Entry — the deeper pullback into the daily 200 MAs, a retest of maybe the inflection point