pray

all dips must be bought

July 21, 2025

gm

welcome to the first edition of the cookbook

this week we have outlooks from the chads — Magus, Doc, Charlie and Stoic

let’s get into it…

Magus

Macro

  • Optimism pays

  • We’ve been trend respecters expecting higher prices, and it looks like that’s playing out

  • If bulls can hold above 115k and break up from this range, a new trend will be locked in

  • You don’t want to see a perfect retest of the previous range around 112k

Levels

  • 120k — resistance

  • 150k — next resistance

  • 115k — support (holding below is a risk-off signal)

Medium timeframe

  • Yearly, quarterly, monthly, anchored are all bullish = bet on up

  • Singles in the 115k-114k range must be defended

  • Theoretically these would be your ideal long, but I don't think we test those given how bullish the market is

  • Remember: violent wicks into areas of interest is ok, but wait if you see price slowly grinding into them

If you’re sidelined…

  • You can buy perps on shallow dips

  • You may have to be more aggressive if you want more spot exposure

  • Anything 117k-115k is your opportunity to buy the dip

  • But there’s a good chance we don’t go that low and just trade up this week

My positioning

  • BTC

  • Added to SOL and HYPE

  • Still holding DOGE, FART, PEPE, BONK

  • Long on BTC December futures contract

Alts overview

  • Alts are very hot right now

  • The pattern we we trade: wait for BTC to impulse up, then buy alts

  • This is playing out

  • Focused on BTC, L1s and memes

  • DeFi is another sector to keep an eye on (e.g. AAVE)

  • I’m not interested in RWA or AI right now

  • People got super negative on memes after 2024, but attention swings back to them every risk-on season

  • TLDR; focus on memes when the market goes risk on

  • But remember they get decimated when the market goes risk-off

Individual alts

  • ETH — I’m sidelined; looks like we’re approaching or in the early stages of ETH szn

  • HYPE — it often moves on its own, so I’m still bullish and not concerned that it went sideways while other stuff moved

  • SOL — my other L1 bet; isn’t the best-looking chart but in conditions like these it doesn’t matter that much

  • FARTCOIN — strong, good chart, massive attention

  • DOGE — prob my favorite coin in the port and often my first choice when I want to go risk-on with alts; people clown it, but it chads; has a treasury narrative

  • PEPE — looks good

  • BONK — been the sector leader for memes; has the buyback narrative

  • I’m also watching SPX6900, AAVE, XRP, PENDLE, MKR

Doc

  • BTC has been ranging for 2 weeks, which gave alts the opportunity to catch up

  • Wen flush? Use your own psychology as a signal

  • When you feel the urge to put on huge risk, it's often a sign that the risk-on stage is getting late and leverage wipeouts will be bigger

  • We might be getting close bc alts are approaching HTF resistance — ETH is near 4k, which has been capped price for years

  • So maybe don’t go all-in here

  • Instead, manage your risk — bet at trends, look for shallow retraces after breakouts, etc

  • I have a rule of not looking at my P&L so I can just trade the chart

  • I took it as a sign to take some profit when I started breaking this rule

  • If you feel FOMO taking profits remember there's always another trade

  • HYPE — betting at the daily trend (H4 100/200 EMA) worked again

BTC Setup

  • BTC daily trend (H4 100/200 EMA) is catching up to the range low around $115

  • If you get it, and the reaction looks good, it'll be a great opportunity

Charlie

  • If BTC sends again expect only a handful of alts to outperform

  • If BTC continues to range we should get more good alt rotations and you should be…

  • Hunting relative strength on Spaghetti (see PENGU example on the last rotation below)

  • As the market runs up make sure you continue to manage your risk

  • i.e. maybe don’t have fifteen positions at 3% risk so you lose half your account if BTC sneezes

Stoic

BTC Scan

BTC Spot Skew

Binance and Coinbase are bracketing price between 119k and 115k (note lack of value under 115 from price chart)

Alts

  • Compression on dominance by open interest between BTC and alts

  • Typically means the risk environment is skewing toward degenerate risk-on

  • In the past this has lead to flushes (give or take a few weeks)

  • So I’m being cautious with leverage right now and will look for forced closes before adding

Weekly market overview

What'd you think of today's edition? Hit 'reply' to this email and let me know!

P.S. We cook up more sauce like this daily in The Paragon.