Riding spot. Recharging.

Bitcoin took off last week, and we’ve been chasing momentum ever since.

We speculated that when the 15-minute trend broke, we would build a consolidation and a range, and we’ve done just that.

Pressed between a rock and a hard place

We’re at the all-time high anchored VWAP (which has capped the last two counter-trend rallies) and the 2024 value area high, confluent with the yearly value area high.

Technically, this is a very high-time retest into the bearish weekly trend. But I think this has been pure high timeframe bearish momentum loss around 60k.

Below us, I think there’s going to be a good amount of dip buyers.

A lot of people are feeling underexposed, and I’m looking to get continuation through dips rather than thinking we’re going to get 60k again.

Months ago I said if we get spot demand above 72-73k, that’s your bull market beginning.

That’s where the last FUD event occurred: Saylor selling Bitcoin, we’re going to fucking zero, Saylor needs to blow up.

We’ve cleanly smashed through it now, and I think dips into 73k are going to be for buying. I think the dips will continue to be shallow.

The 4-hour trend is extremely fat

We’re trading into the 4-hour trend right now, and it is extremely fat. Even a sweep of the weekend lows would still be within the context of the 4-hour trend, and I think would provide opportunity to get into longs for higher.

The next level above the comp highs and the anchored VWAP is the 365-day rolling, right around 81.3k. That’s the next high side target for me.

The books are very skewed towards the bears right now, a lot of supply overhead. You need strong taker flows to eat through those asks.

We’re in the same exact environment right now, which is heavy asks above head. As long as the taker flows are strong, I think you can continue playing momentum to the upside. It’s too early for me to just want to look to fade.

With that being said, I did take a partial hedge on the spot, like 30% of the stack, entry 77.8k I believe, or 77.7k. I would be completely wrong on it if we trade through the 365-day rolling.

VVV, comp expansion, comp expansion, comp expansion

Still full spot long. The perp swing from $11 to $17 I fully closed over the weekend, so I’m no longer perp long on VVV.

This is a clean 4-hour trend once again, right? The meta here has been comp expansion, comp expansion, comp expansion.

Take longs near our local composite value area low combined with the 4-hour trend. Resistance is the previous quarterly value high. We just don’t want a rip through that drops back into the last consolidation. That would be a pretty bearish early sign for me.

Hyperliquid looks like vertical accumulation

Grindy higher highs and higher lows. The one leverage flush we got over the weekend was bought straight up. But the hourly trend that carried us from $70 to $80 has been broken.

If there is a dip, I would not be looking for that flush wick immediately. A shallower dip into the pullback makes a lot more sense to look for continuation longs.

TLDR

• When it comes to medium timeframe plans for Bitcoin, I’m still in dip buyer mode

• Any leverage flushes, across the market or on Bitcoin, are opportunities to continue playing momentum to the upside

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: BTC dip buy

Trigger — I’m buying dips into 73k, another run of the weekend low, or any leverage flush that’s still inside the 4-hour trend

Target — 81.3k, the 365-day rolling; that’s my next high side target

Timeframe — medium timeframe

Setup: VVV continuation long

Entry — I’m taking longs near our local composite value area low combined with the 4-hour trend

Setup: HYPE continuation long

Trigger — I want a shallower dip into the pullback, not that flush wick; cleanest if it’s confluent with Bitcoin taking out the weekend lows

I’ve once again taken time off during the most volatile week of the year.

I’ve been building out tooling with Claude over the boring months and come up with another screener for coins to bid.

One is extension from consolidation & mean percentile of price + OI extension.

ENA, PEPE, ZEC, AAVE & HYPE at the top of the pack.

OI extension in a trending environment is useful to see where the most interest is currently in the case of dips. Add to watchlist, follow trend.

"crowding" is good until the work being done stops producing results on dips. Typically these will get bid the quickest.

XRP & DOGE seems to be some other tickers to move up the watchlist when looking at OI added vs extension.

I made a mistake. I suck. I missed out on the HYPE move, and yes, it’s eating away at me.

I’d been praying on that Hyperliquid setup ever since we lost the 6H 200s. Then it reclaimed key trends at $60 while I was hosting a livestream. Skill issue on my part.

I should have paused the live stream and logged in to handle my business, but I didn’t. And I’m coping.

So what’s the thing that’s keeping me tried and true?

Opportunity is abundant.

If you missed one, you can catch the other

PUMP broke out first, reclaiming a key trend for the first time in a year.

Then LIGHTER.

Then Ethereum reclaimed the 12H 200s, and six hours after that, ENA broke out.

If you missed one, you can catch the other. If you missed all of them, it’s not the system that sucks.

The last of the puzzle piece

85k is a major inflection point for Bitcoin.

I’m giving merit to a two-month range low that just so happened to be the exact region where we found an ultimate high on weekly market structure.

Which, by the way, is exactly what the D2 200 MAs are representing: weekly market structure. We’re still trading below them, and they’re the line in the sand.

So that’s the key piece of the puzzle. It’s the ultimate bearish argument on the grandest scheme, and it’s how that immediately flips into the ultimate bullish argument.

The difference between a bearish relief rally and the infancy of potentially running it back turbo.

We don’t have to wait for monthly candle closes, that’s stupid. Some coiling up of price action at the level, maybe seven days of it, and everybody can look at the chart and go, yeah, that’s starting to look like a reclaim.

Maybe let’s remind ourselves how to dream a bit.

A rough draft on LINK

The 4H 200 MAs are a high-timeframe trend on LINK.

Ideally we can look for pullbacks into the range highs in addition to the 4H 200 MAs, and that would be an ideal place for the trend to look for continuation. And I guess in essence you’re front-running a daily 200 MAs pullback, or the 12H 200s pullback, and just resuming the trend more aggressively.

That gives us an objective 20% or so. Beyond that comes an additional 147% of speculation, meaning if we did just so happen to deviate back inside of the multi-year range, that’s probably where the real fun starts.

This is the ideal rough draft, the way that we might see this trade come into fruition at some point in the next few days or maybe even next few weeks.

Trading LIGHTER like it’s price discovery

I’m going to trade LIT like it’s in price discovery.

For take-profits, I’d consider two options.

One fib extension draw is the local high to the low.

The other way I can justify it is going from the highest high to the lowest low.

I’m personally using the local high to the low, because the price history on this chart seems quite limited.

On that draw, the 1.618 is the first take-profit.

Next after that is the 2.618. And if it’s more, oh, I genuinely believe in LIGHTER, I think this thing could go absolutely bonkers, maybe we start tapping the 3.618 all the way close to $5.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: LINK long

Trigger — I’m looking for a pullback into the range highs plus the 4H 200 MAs; that’s where the trend looks for continuation

Target — an objective 20% or so to the next resistance, with another 147% of speculation if we deviate back inside the multi-year range

Timeframe — next few days, maybe even the next few weeks