L bozo to the doomers.

Pretty good reversion off the bearish headlines and that created a great trading environment.

Bitcoin

My gut tells me this is the macro bottom forming.

But I'm not trying to be too predictive because I don't find it that valuable, it’s better to take things day by day.

I expect Q2 to be bullish, at least the first half. We're going to clown the sell in May and go away guys.

There's a reasonable chance we get through 72K this time. We have this composite structure building at the range high, spot demand persisting, and the 30-day VWAP is starting to slope upwards and act as support.

Quarterly rolling has been significant resistance for a long time, but I think we put in a strong attempt to defeat it.

If we get over 72K, I could see us slice through the low volume node and trade up to the mid 80s very quickly and catch a lot of people off guard.

The perfect scenario to bait people into thinking the macro lows are in and we're going to 150K, then have all of that revert back down in the summertime (Q3).

Be really careful who you listen to on Twitter. I'll scroll and see all these random accounts talking about how it's a perp-led move. These guys are morons. We’ve had spot participating on this move up.

I believe we’re in a HTF accumulation meta. I haven't bought any additional spot (already have a lot), so if we trade up to 100K in one candle, you're not going to hear any crying from me.

The rest of the portfolio

S&P rebound has been stronger than most people expected.

Zoom out on the yearly and it looks insanely good, we bounced off the rolling. Haven't added since October, still perfectly happy DCAing up. Win-win whether this is a dead cat or we go to ATHs.

Metals, I’m chilling. Sold 90% of my silver on the big runup, no intention of buying it back. Gold looks decent. REMX structure looks really good. Looking at XLU as an add on this pullback.

TLDR 72K is the line and I think we get through it this time. Play it day by day.

Cheers.

Over the weekend we gapped down to create our fourth CME gap that’s open. One above price, three below (the one above has since filled).

Our hit rate on CME fills in 2025 was near perfect, almost 100% for the year. I maintain that the strongest edge for CMEs is just betting on them to get filled.

Bears have had two months to break us below this range. We've had extreme bouts of FUD, stock market corrections, everything.

Bitcoin continues to hold 65k. That leads me to believe a higher low and a bigger rally is coming, potentially towards 78k.

What I’m looking for

Every time we come into 72-73-74k, we run into spot asks. The best way to break through asks is with a strong spot bid.

What I've seen over the past couple months is the strongest spot bids have come from Binance. When they're in the books and buying spot, price reacts pretty strongly.

If we can get Binance in the books above 72-73k, it opens up the possibility for much higher prices. The level to break through is about 73.4k.

TLDR; If we hold 69k and get Binance spot above 72-73k, 78k opens up. If effort is rewarded below 70.5k and we can't reclaim, momentum continuation to the downside.

Zooming out on 3D, I've been yapping about the 90D rolling VWAP for the past week or so.

This is a great area to use as an interim pivot. The last time BTC traded above it was before Oct 10, 2025. If price accepts above, I’m expecting an interim rally to high 70s-80.

Currently, pressing up right against it with passive spot supply continuing to show up at the local highs.

Zoom in to H8, indicates price is attempting to break out of developing value since the last major leg down in early Feb.

To keep it simple, if BTC accepts back below 70, I'm looking to play the rotation back to mid to low 60s. Above with constructive spot flow and acceptance above the 90D, targeting that high 70s-80 area.

HYPE

Updating the analysis from weeks ago, HYPE successfully held the HTF range lows as support, and is now trading back into the mid-range.

The analysis is, and has been, that we have allowed for a larger move into the range highs, at $50.

If we manage to break out of that key resistance, there's nothing really stopping HYPE from making new ATHs beyond that point.

BTC

No trigger = No trade.

For Bitcoin, I'm still just waiting for a more meaningful indication that this time is more likely to be the breakout that fuels a larger rally.

In the meantime, I'm doing my best to not get too optimistic at range high resistance. Chop is still at the forefront of my mind.

A breakout of the 12H 200 MAs is definitely something that we have NOT been able to do at any point in the past 6 months.

The 12H 200 MAs themselves are a trend I've used to represent multi-month trending movements in either direction for the better part of the past few years, including the past ~6 months of downtrend.

Reclaiming them is the clearest and most actionable signal from here that implies we're due for a larger push towards 90k region.