see you next edition

Friday was brutal.

I got hit, you got hit, a lot of traders got wiped out.

If you're here Monday ready to go, pat yourself on the back. But job's not finished.

We opened the new week in value around 116k, and we're waiting for direction: What will Trump say?

Trump walks back China fully? We probably shoot back to 120k.

If he doubles down we're looking at least at the lows around 109k.

My line in the sand for local strength is 114K.

If we hold above this, bulls are in control and 118.5k is the next target based on monthly VWAPs. Break below 114k and I think 112k comes fast, 109k more likely.

If we do see another drop in equities I want to see BTC show relative strength, and ideally reclaim this 109k region quickly.

This is my highest area of interest for BTC spot but I'm even more interested in…

ETH

ETH gave us our first test-best test weekly trend tag (D1 100/200 EMA) on the Friday dump.

Same with ETHBTC.

I'm looking to stack more ETH on any dips in the 3900-3400 region, especially if we get confluence from BTC (i.e. BTC showing relative strength against equities, running lows, holding value).

My invalidation is losing the weekly trend on either ETHUSD or ETHBTC.

TLDR; Hold 114k or prepare for 109k. Watch for BTC/S&P relative strength. ETH is my highest interest play.

TLDR; play rotations if you’re feeling spicy, the rest of the market is in the hands of orange man.

My bias is this is a complacency shoulder on alts and nice for intraday trading.

But honestly I think the alt market is pretty much destroyed apart from the ten coins that have reclaimed structures (e.g. BNB, USELESS, etc).

ETHBTC

The incredibly high timeframe D2 200 MA trend on ETHBTC that we've been watching for several editions got tested perfectly during Friday's chaos and held beautifully with a strong reaction.

Now we want to see a reclaim of the H4 200 MA trend and a deviation back inside the previous range.

If we get that, the daily market structure breaks bullishly with a higher high.

ETHBTC is the best proxy for the altcoin market, so strength would confirm the thesis that this was the flush we needed before legging higher.

BTC

Bitcoin never actually broke down from the range, which means there's still hope for an eventual breakout into price discovery, with alts dragging behind later.

But right now we've only seen a relief bounce from range lows to mid-range.

I've been prioritizing the range itself on Bitcoin, using 30M 200MAs to represent momentum intra-range.

We've seen consecutive bearish retests of this trend during the bounce, unable to reclaim as I write this.

If we reclaim the local trend plus this mid-range inflection point, I imagine we push into range highs again, with a chance we breakout entirely.