BTC could be forming the macro bottom.

If we see a sell off into the range lows, I think that would be a good expected value long given the invalidation is probably like 2-3% from there.

If you're feeling FOMO right now, don't.

It’s very unlikely it's going to just V back up to 120k before you have time to long. People who chase in these moments are going to chop themselves up and lose confidence before the long play even materializes.

Right now it's basically 50-50 whether we accept outside the range or not.

72k and the VWAP flip

I thought 72-73k was going to be really strong resistance, and it was, but it looks like we're trying to accept above it.

This is the first time we've flipped the anchored VWAP from the swing high in January, we've rejected off of it twice and this looks like an actual attempt to flip it.

I never really expect price to just flip the VWAP, test it, and go up higher.

It's that back and forth chop where you slowly have the slope point in the other direction. Pullbacks into the 30-day are what I'd be paying close attention to.

This move up is not being lifted solely by perps regardless of what people say on Twitter.

Coinbase and even Binance have been doing quite a bit of spot lifting.

If we accept over 72k there's not a whole lot between this range and the next, so you could see price trade into the upper 80s, maybe lower 90s pretty quick.

Still hedged, stacking chips

My biggest position is Bitcoin, still hedged.

I've had the hero play where I close the hedge at the lows blow up in my face before, so I'd rather be slow and steady with the transition back to risk-on.

For me, the meta is intraday right now, and I'm going to keep squeezing out setups and stacking up poker chips to move into the long-term holdings.

Remember…

Being a pessimist is going to make you sound smart, but being an optimist is what's going to actually make you money (and have a better life).

Cheers.

The Q2 framework

Two weeks left in Q1, and the yearly and quarterly VWAPs are the exact same right now, 75k.

Meanwhile, the quarterly value area low sits around 65k, and that's going to be the line in the sand for bulls.

Every time we've pressed down into 65k or below, we got really good bullish reactions: good spot flow, good absorption, shorts into the lows that got squeezed out.

Is that meta going to continue in Q2, or are bears going to get rewarded effort through that level?

75-76k is where bears should hold the line on moves up.

Even as a bull, if we get into 75-76k, that's where I’m taking my foot off the gas. We're still in a weekly downtrend, and if the quarterly VWAP rejects, bears are aiming back at previous quarterly value low. I think that swing setup is forming.

TradFi, S&P and the high-timeframe

The daily trend on the S&P 500 is lost, bullish momentum is lost, and the S&P has a pretty strong knack of just retesting prior all-time highs.

Maybe 6200 is a decent level to look at it bottoming, another 7% or so. The question is what is Bitcoin going to do in that 7% drop.

People love to mock relative strength and use it as an excuse to not look for longs on Bitcoin when the S&P is weak.

But the pattern is the same every time: Bitcoin was weak first and then held the lows as S&P made new lows.

October 2023, June 2022, the tariff flows last year.

Each time, Bitcoin had already gotten pounded into the dirt, and when the S&P sold off, it held, then sprung up as equities bottomed.

If the S&P drops another 7%, and Bitcoin is sitting at composite value low showing absorption, failed shorts and spot buying, I will be bullish.

Low and medium timeframe

The 4-hour trend got pressure tested multiple times over the weekend.

Bulls got a little too horny on Friday's breakout, and all of them were forced out as price moved against them.

But positioning reset, spot books flipped bullish, and fresh limit orders chasing higher.

Holding trend good, lose trend bad.

Picking up spot in the "25k region"

I’ve been buying a little spot.

First purchase was during the February capitulation, second one about a week ago around 63k.

These are profits from 2025 sitting on crypto rails just collecting dust, and I'd rather start picking up assets than put more cash in the bank.

Do I think the bottom is in at 60k?

I don't think so.

But my gut tells me we're in like a 25k region if we're using metaphors from 2022.

25k was not the bottom, we went 40% lower, but anyone who bought there looks pretty good now that we hit 125k, right?

I'm speculating a year or two from now these buys will look the same way.

Not too stressed if we're sitting at 55k or 48k underwater, and I’ll probably be sending short trades along the way that’ll hedge my spot if we go down more.

Have a good week.

Back next week

Been keeping an eye on quarterly value for the past month or so, and now we’re finally trading close to the quarterly VWAP with only 16 days left in the quarter.

This entire area into 80 is ripe for mean reversion on the back of shorts getting squeezed.

Ugly highs left behind around previous month high, could trigger a swing fail if the majority keep getting trigger happy on the short side.

Higher timeframe thought experiment

The loss-retest of the 365d rolling VWAP led to ~10 months before a reclaim last time. Currently 2 months in.

One scenario puts BTC towards a November 2026 reclaim.

The other points towards earlier sell exhaustion given the 40% leg from 100 to 60 already normalizing the move.

Both dependent on equities and reflexivity.

Bottoms take time.

Weeks of value development, then a flip of higher timeframe confirms the tide is shifting.

Decisive flip of the weekly trend at 85+ would be telling.

BTC

Momentum in the short term favors further upside, but the targets are capped.

In these newsletters we've had various discussions about the very high timeframe perspective, and how it began to shift unfavorably as Bitcoin traded below 100k.

It would be short-sighted to neglect those arguments, which are still relevant today.

At the same time, we risk complacency by disregarding the local strength.

As it stands, price action looks set to see a larger rally into ~80k, where our weekly trend of 12H 200MAs currently resides. Anything beyond that inflection point is inherently more speculative.

HYPE keeps going

HYPE has been at the forefront of everyone's minds as of late, and for good reason.

It's the coin that has most obviously shown relative strength compared to the rest of the market.

This speaks to the idea that the crowd is often right, and trend traders go with the crowd as opposed to trading against them.

Last week we mentioned that the relative strength would likely carry us into the $36-50 range, and if it did, we'd anticipate that a deviation back inside of the range would allow for a push into the range highs as well.

So far that analysis is working nicely. It's just a matter of momentum sustaining.