I’ve been super patient, but I’m not going to be for much longer.

I’m really hopeful that we get our Q3/Q4 fakeout buy-the-dip opportunity soon.

S&P and TradFi

We’re obviously respecting the S&P macro uptrend and leaning into that with our bias.

But on the lower timeframe, we are slowly grinding downwards with continuous weaker structure. It looks like it’s going to continue to staircase down for now.

At some point I think we’re going to see a bottoming structure, probably maybe 100-200 points lower. Form a bottom here pretty soon, go sideways for a little bit, and then that can be the base for the Q4 spring.

BTC: the structural shift hasn’t happened yet

This is the first impulsive move we’ve really had since the downtrend started where bulls actually legged us up aggressively.

Maybe bulls get lucky, and this is just a consolidation at resistance into another impulsive move. But that’s not what I’m betting on.

Ultimately what I’m betting on is us breaking down from this range and forming the next macro higher low.

Once we get a very clear structural shift on the corn, I think the risk appetite is going to accelerate really, really quickly, because this is just a purely reflexive asset.

When it looks like shit, nobody wants to fuck with it, but when it looks good, everybody gets really horned up to own more and more, right?

80k is resistance right now. 60k is support. That’s the bracket we’ve been stuck in for basically the entire year. If we get over 80k, that’s strong. Obviously, if we accept below 60k, that’s really bad.

I would much prefer us to do a pullback and sweep 70k so I can send a giga leverage long. I can’t justify opening a leverage long right here in the same type of way.

Giga long on the range reclaim

Right now we’re wedged below 80k and above 77k, and the price is pretty tight.

The lows are holding up quite nicely and it looks like we’re confidently attacking the highs. There’s no clear evidence of momentum loss just yet.

If we do break down from this range, I’m basically targeting a sweep of 70k where everyone will target 70k. Hopefully we trade below 70k and aggressively reclaim it.

Could potentially have the alternative scenario where, if everyone wants to buy 70k, maybe we front-run it and just kind of sweep this range low.

If we attack these lows super aggressively, have a large open interest wipe/liquidations, a massive volume spike and it reclaims the range, then I want to be giga long up into the 90s.

Definitely pay attention to that as a potential plan as well.

Cash ready to go

My core positioning is still Bitcoin, SPX and cash. My broker accounts have cash ready to go.

I’ve been telling you guys for many, many months that I want to buy single-name equities and add to the core bags, but I didn’t want to buy shit during the summertime lull that I expected to happen.

I’m going to look to add to Bitcoin spot, probably start a fresh Bitcoin swing long on derivatives, add to my existing TradFi bags and start new single-name equities. I’m not interested in lower-timeframe trading for the most part right now.

If things play out horribly and we trade down, we’re just going to flip to bears and short this shit.

If I’m wrong, there’s going to be so much vaporware for us to short that it’s going to be fine. If I’m right, the upside opportunity for us is just enormous.

It’s time to lock the fuck in. Good luck out there.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: SPX Q4 spring

Entry — the bottoming structure, probably 100-200 points lower, that’s the opportunity to finally do those adds

Timeframe — base here soon for the Q4 bounce

Setup: BTC range-reclaim long

Trigger — a sweep below 70k and an aggressive reclaim; or if 70k gets front-run, a super aggressive attack on the range lows with a large open interest wipe, liquidations and a massive rVOL spike, then a reclaim back into the range

Target — up into the 90s

Timeframe — over the next week or two

I’m generally bullish this week.

We formed a range, dipped into the lows and got back inside, so we can probably have a trending week up towards the highs once again.

But we’d be trading into high timeframe resistance if we do: current yearly developing value high, 2024 value area high, 365-day rolling. So we’d need aggressive spot buying up there to get through.

Everyone wants a pullback

I’m going to say the same thing I’ve been saying every week for the past three weeks: if we do get a pullback, I will buy. That being said, it’s probably the most consensus trade idea in the market right now.

This is where game theory comes into play.

Is the market just going to hand us an easy opportunity?

No.

The market is going to make it very difficult for people to get filled in one of two ways:

• We continue chopping around till people get so bored they just start buying in this range. Then we get the pullback and they don’t have the ammo to buy the dip, or

• A pullback comes with some FUD and people will be too scared to buy (rate hikes or this or that or the other thing), and the opportunity comes and goes.

So remember, whenever it comes to these consensus trade plans, you got to add a little game theory on top.

I reminded you guys a couple weeks ago about that swing low. I said, “Hey, that’s the most consensus sweep. Everyone wants this. Gun to my head, we’ll front run this.”

And if and when a target gets attacked, we probably won’t just get a little dinky sweep, it’ll probably end up being a deeper flush below.

Frontrun or blast through.

This chart was just too clean

VVV is the swing I laid out off the weekly demand back in August, looking for new all-time highs, and I already fully closed the perp swing from $11 to $17.

I’m really happy with the way this trade played out. I’ve already paid myself on a 40% move. I’ve taken some out of spot VVV and put it back into spot Bitcoin.

I made the plans: 4-hour trend loss, let’s get a daily trend tag. It front ran, and then when we tagged it we actually made a higher low.

That was not a fundamental thesis. It was just clean on the chart. I’m happy that the market agreed with me on this one.

The next time I would want to position for VVV would probably be either the daily trend or the weekly trend. I don’t want to see a full retrace of this expansion.

The swing I really want

I think PUMP looks phenomenal.

I would like to take this at least towards all-time high, most likely beyond.

We’re already 37% down, and I would call it a pretty clean pullback. I think the structure looks fine.

This marked out region is the big wick that PUMP got, so a run of these lows could be a good interim trigger.

The best position will come off the weekly trend. I’m kind of hoping price can meet the weekly trend a little bit higher rather than having to bleed all the way down.

That said, I did pick up a little bit of PUMP positioning around $0.0036 into this crab. Just the starter bag, nothing super big yet.

New shiny setup

The last one I want to mention is PONS.

I did pick up a little bit around $0.54 as we tagged the daily trend finally. I would love deeper fills, like if it comes down to $0.45, that’s where I’d get the kind of full position that I want.

I would invalidate myself below $0.35. I really don’t want to hold on to this even if I’d be selling the local lows. For me that’s just kind of an indication this is not as desirable.

I’d rather buy this in a pullback into high timeframe strength and allow the other participants with giga conviction to do all the work and all the lifting for me. The same thing we did with VVV.

I did grab a little bit more Bitcoin recently around 76k or 77k. Nothing big, just something light, just continue to stack chips into stuff that I believe in.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: PUMP swing

Trigger — a run of the lows at the big wick I’ve marked out could be a good interim trigger

Entry — the best position will come off the weekly trend

Target — at least towards all-time high, ultimately fresh all-time highs

Setup: PONS

Entry — $0.45 is where I’d get the full position I want

Invalidation — below $0.35

I have been super active the last 3-4 weeks because the market has been hot and risk-on.

But now almost every alt chart I have posted looks the same, downtrend and lower highs and lower lows on the low to medium timeframe.

The rotation was absolutely bang on

My simple plan for USELESS was buy as much as I can while it ranges and add to it on a breakout. Insane relative strength both high timeframe and low timeframe.

USELESS trade to the absolute pip. I’m not going to lie I did not expect USELESS to fully round-trip this move lmao. All in 48 hours... wild.

Realistically I’m not going to ape a load of spot this time. I think the rotation that we caught was absolutely bang on.

Entirely dependent on the memeline

The next rotation is entirely dependent on this memeline being broken on Bitcoin.

If we lose this range on Bitcoin I think we see a lot of that risk appetite deteriorate and we go back to waiting for great opportunities (there is always a runner somewhere).

Clean up your watchlists and spaghetti

Deleting dead symbols from your tradingview watchlist that at some point you had ABSOLUTE conviction in is humbling.

Vast majority of these coins will be dead in 1 year, and you need to focus your attention on what the market cares about.

BTC is pretty straightforward here in my opinion.

It has remained rotational and consolidating in a range for 3 weeks now, which provides clear bounds to formulate a thesis around.

If BTC trades and accepts above the 365-day rolling VWAP, it continues to leg up.

If BTC breaks down below 76k, I will be watching for a position puke and flush. Anything into the low 70s is a normal cooldown. Acceptance under there spells trouble. If it’s a shallower retrace into ~73-74k, that would be a bull pullback scenario.

The best way for me to play this is to remain a bit patient and observe a clean break of this range and how positioning looks following the break.

For example, on a breakdown, if perps keep longing every dip while spot dumps, I’m going to stay out of the way until I see absorption.

If BTC breaks above 81-82k with continued spot buying, I will be looking to play momentum to the upside on alts as well.

A quick gauge on where strength is

By the way, if you throw on a developing yearly VWAP with a 1 SD band on everything and watch where each ticker is trading with respect to that, it’ll give you a quick gauge on where strength is to create a watchlist.

Not too tied in with macro

CLARITY Act rumors and FOMC on Wednesday. The rate hike is telegraphed, so it’s mostly priced in. The conversation is probably more so around whether there will be two rate hikes this year.

In all reality, I try not to get too tied in with macro stuff. The orderflow front runs the news flow anyway and the market is forward-looking. So I’m just going to trade and position with what is in front of me.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: BTC breakout

Trigger — BTC breaks above 81-82k with continued spot buying, and trades and accepts above the 365-day rolling VWAP

Target — continue to leg up, and I will be looking to play momentum to the upside on alts as well

HYPE 6H 200 MAs confluent with this range high is a totally valid inflection point.

I got lucky

The way that I traded this in real time, though, and again it’s always discretionary, I was using 2H 200 MAs.

When we reclaimed those, that was my aha moment. We did just find a higher low, we’re probably going to fulfill the range into the range highs and maybe even price discovery because context is favorable. So maybe I should bid now.

And then I bid, and then I got lucky because HYPE went 100% higher than my entry. In hindsight, 6H 200s would have made that way easier.

We like money too much

6H 200s got reclaimed, and what do we think might happen?

We fulfill the range and then maybe even price discovery thereafter. If 6H 200s get pulled back into, we continue doing the same thing that we’ve been doing.

Why is that our analysis? Because that’s been our analysis. We like money too much for that to not be our analysis.

So any deeper pullbacks into this region, 6H 200s are going to be nicely confluent with a previous range high.

The only thing we would lack here? Where do you hide your stop?

Everything else is exactly the way that I would desire it to be. I can target literal price discovery because there’s nothing above me. Oh, but I just lied to you guys.

There’s an hourly 200 MA trend above me, so technically there’s a snowball of weakness.

Only one fear is valid

You know what issue I am worried about?

What if I go to bid the 6H 200s, the inflection point, and we just fall straight through it?

“Oops, just kidding. That’s actually a deviation that might have been a more macro kind of a top.”

Here we are losing a high time frame trend for only the second time in the past eight months. We might go at least to range lows.

At any point in time in markets, there are infinite fears to take on. But there’s only one valid fear at a time. Make sure you’re actually submitting to the valid fear.

Master the art of buying reclaims. You get to trade however you want to trade, not how you feel the market has forced you into trading.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: HYPE long

Entry — Deeper pullback into the 6H 200s, nicely confluent with a previous range high

Fail zone — I go to bid the 6H 200s and we just fall straight through them. That might have been a more macro top, and we might go at least to range lows

Target — Price discovery