We’ve officially made it through the first month of Q3, and we’re about a month or two away from time to really lock in and go hard in Q4.

One last pullback before Q4

We’ve built this multi-month macro composite on the SPX from mid-April, and this leg up really does reaffirm the idea that value is going to continue to shift upwards within it.

A week or two ago I told you guys a dip into 7,200-7,100 is a clear buy the dip. If we do one more dip into the 7K region in Aug/Sept, I’ll probably send it.

40k is last cycle’s 12k

Moving over into the corn, the doodles are still valid.

I think we get a bit of a pullback across risk in August, more and more compression, then a front-run move in September/October. I’m always ready for a fuck you move in the opposite direction before the real move up. We rarely get a free ride.

I don’t want to see us lose that 60 to 57k region. A little below 60k is fine, that’s value buy territory, but we really don’t want to see 57k lost.

If I’m wrong, it means Bitcoin’s going to trade down into the 40s. I think 40k is going to be last cycle’s 12k and the bottom is more or less in. Large ships take a long time to turn.

Down, then up a lot

We mostly had this slow grind into very clear momentum loss the past week or two, and 65k is really strong medium timeframe resistance.

Either we break above 65k here soon, probably this week, and see that final leg up into the 70k region, where I would close out my long and hopefully pivot short.

Or the momentum loss just continues and we roll over and trade down into the lows. Either way, I think both scenarios end with us going down and then up a lot.

I’m up like 9%, 10% and I don’t want to risk round tripping it, but that rational part in the back of my mind keeps telling me, just close out the trade and move on with your life.

Give me some more green through the rest of the week and I’ll hold it, otherwise I’m probably closing it soon.

Remember we’ve been in a staircase up, elevator down meta.

Cash accumulation mode

Core positioning is all the same, Bitcoin, SPX, and cash. I’ve been in cash accumulation mode all year long, and I want to dollar cost average up on some of my main plays plus some fresh equities.

As far as fresh crypto goes, maybe some more Bitcoin, maybe Hyperliquid, and that’s about it.

Big picture, I’m in recovery season, chill a tiny bit in August, then really start clicking buttons again in September and hopefully crush Q4 alongside everybody. Good luck out there. Cheers.

Setups aka i aint reading all that 

SPX long
Trigger — one more dip into the 7K region
Timeframe — macro; dip expected in August, rally into Q4

BTC value buy
Entry — a little below 60k, value buy territory
Invalidation — 57k lost
Timeframe — macro

BTC pivot short
Trigger — break above 65k, final leg up into the 70k region
Fail zone — 68 to 70k, roughly, where I expect upside to fail
Timeframe — medium timeframe; trigger leg possibly this week

Let me walk you through last Monday’s long at pwVAL, start to finish. Then the game plan for this week.

Trade review: patience at pwVAL

Before last Monday’s New York open, the weekly open was sitting right at pwVWAP, the previous week’s VWAP.

That gave me clean, reliable levels to work off: pwVAH at 66k, stacked right on top of pmVAH, and pwVAL down at 64.4k.

My bias leaned toward wanting price to tag 64.4k.

We’d built weekly value higher for three straight weeks going into Monday, and to continue that grind up, bulls would need to hold the prior week’s VAL. Pre-NYO aggressive taker flow was quiet, as it often is. So the plan going into the session: if rotational VWAP behavior continued, the better long opportunity was at pwVAL, not chasing strength higher.

Price traded straight up off NYO on the back of strong Binance spot buying, some short perp position unwound into the 2nd standard deviation VAH. This was burst buying, not the steady, standardized TWAP buying that tends to lead to longer rallies.

Aggressive action into a daily price extremity, then the “faucet turning off.” The spot buying that created the NYO spike stopped on a dime and flipped into spot selling across Coinbase and Binance within a few minutes.

Patience paid off.

Price ran down into pwVAL on the highest-volume move of the day on Binance perps, 2k+ volume on the 1-minute candle, plus the MMT template showing long positional closing.

At the level

Longs were getting stopped out, shorts were opening. Classic behavior at a well-known reference level. Shorts opening into a daily discount can itself become a trigger if spot is unsupportive.

Looking at AGGR, you can see the aggression of spot selling into the daily lows, followed by a tapering of that aggression back off to baseline. That’s exhaustion.

As spot flow tapered, perp flow became more aggressive. That was my signal: unless spot selling continued aggressively through pwVAL, some late shorts could get hunted.

I don’t trade after confirmation. I trade on key clue speculation and let the market confirm or deny my thesis afterward.

I didn’t take the entry all at once, I split it into two parts. First half entered as longs were getting stopped near pwVAL, anticipating the level. Second half entered as price swept into and through the level, with fresh short opens stacking into that tapered spot flow.

It sat near my entry for two hours as perp aggression built against fading spot exhaustion, then take profit was the classic target: daily VWAP, rotation back to the mean, exactly the thesis from the morning. A near-1% intraday move on BTC is more than enough for me.

Build the level map before the session, scale entries across the level instead of guessing the exact tick, take the boring rotational target.

This week: eyeing the weekly open

(From Monday morning, pre-open)

We’ve been down only from the weekly open so far this week, so previous week’s values are the most notable thing for me right now.

63.1 is right around the weekly open, and that’s going to be a pretty significant point for bears to want to defend. Any pushes up into the previous week’s value area low are going to be for bears to come in and try to bonk price back down.

Bulls need to show some effort being rewarded above there to get us back into previous week’s values, which can ultimately trend us higher.

If we can get above 66k, I want to open up the door to 71k, a move back to the old composite value area high.

The highest ev swing long is going to be down around 61k, prior lows, yearly lows, value area low and the anchored composite value area low all overlapping.

HYPE and VVV real quick

Hyperliquid ran that swing low, maybe a little bit of momentum loss over a couple days so far.

The most dominant trend on HYPE is the H12; when the 12-hour trend gets broken, you will get relief. The weekly trend is probably the only really solid trend, so I’d like to be optimistic, but there’s a lot of work to do for Hyperliquid at this moment.

For now, base case is going to be chop. You want to be bullish at a discount, bearish at a premium. Very simple stuff.

VVV fully retraced that pump from two weeks ago, and last week was pretty much down only. VVV should ideally hold around $10, and that could be your optimistic approach for higher.

TLDR

• Above 66k opens the door to 71k. The highest probability swing long is down around 61k.

• HYPE base case is chop, bullish at a discount, bearish at a premium. VVV needs to hold $10.

Let’s be honest, the market’s a bit slow… and all I wanted to do is trade some shitcoins.

Chop solidation

Bitcoin’s still not able to print a higher high, but we have also printed a higher low. So we are just in chopsolidation.

There’s kind of no other way to put it. There’s no major rotations on alts, and if they are, they’re typically illiquid shite.

I’m still short from 89k, so I’ve got plenty of room to play with. I just don’t think the bottom’s in here.

I’m happy to be wrong, we’ve got plans to long it and rebuy it if we really push over psych 65, 66k. Not a problem. But until I am significantly structurally wrong, I do think we have some more downside to come. And then that’ll be it, right? A bit of consolidation, chopping around, everyone saying crypto is dead. Maybe not 36k, a wick into the 42s or something like that.

High time frame predictors don’t earn much money, they’re just fucking guesses. I’m not going to put a load of stink bids at exactly $42,134 because that is where I’ve drawn my shitty little box. If I’m wrong, the chart will tell me, the market will tell me, and I can change my position.

The thing is, to me as someone who’s massively in cash, that’s a massive opportunity for me. How many bitcoins can I buy? Cool. Let’s run this same playbook again.

The opposite of 10/10

I am convinced that there’s going to be a day, and I don’t think we’re that far away from it, of just a 10-20% across the board day.

As everyone who was long got fucked on 10/10, everyone who is short is going to get fucked. Let’s call it 9/9. Absolutely whipsawed by one candle, and it probably reverts straight after. I don’t know, I’ve just got this feeling, and it’s nothing more than my balls are tingling.

UNI is moving up my list

We’re reclaiming quite a pivotal level at this 3.90, 3.94 kind of area.

If we can consolidate here, do a bit of a giraffe around this level and then play the long side after another little break, we could easily see it run to like $7.

The only bullish argument I can create for secular runs is the whole DeFi ecosystem exploding again.

Not discovery like the first time, but real adoption, actually paying people fees, tokens essentially acting like equity. Memes are pretty much all the same pattern. They’re all fucking dead.

Can’t do it, boys

ETH is one coin I could see just going on a massive run out of a proper hated rally.

I’m trying to convince myself to buy some spot ETH. I just can’t do it. I can’t do it, boys. I’m not hyped enough on ETH and it might be my downfall.

Zcash in the next few days

If we’ve got an opportunity to long Zcash, I think it’ll be in the next few days, and it will be a break of this downtrend.

I’m not trying to say this is going to happen, I’m doing an if/then. If we break the downtrend, if we bounce from what I suspect is a very high time frame pivot, if we show a little bit of relative strength, there is a trade opportunity here for the next leg. I suspect we just about take these highs.

No way I round trip Hype

I’m in the Hype short and it is just a continued downtrend.

There’s just no reason for me to think that this is going to change anytime soon. If we break the downtrend, that’s reason one to watch out. If we push over the EMA, reason two. And if we reclaim the former range low, it’s get the fuck out time. There is no way I’m letting myself round trip this entire thing and take a loss. Just no fucking way.

Hype’s not bad, it’s really not bad at all. It’s one of the stronger coins for sure and I certainly don’t blame people longing it. But it looks like distribution to me. I’ll probably buy it at 63, you would have bought it at 55, and I’ll be a fucking mug.

This is probably the bottom

I’m on holiday this week, going to Spain.

Anyone who’s been in the group for a while knows that this means this is probably the bottom, and this is going to be the best fucking week of volatility. That 20% day is going to come while I’m away, cuz every time I check my phone, I go, you bastards.

On that bombshell, boys, I will love you and leave you. Au revoir, peace and good night.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

ZEC long
Trigger — break of the 3D downtrend with a bit of relative strength, bouncing off the high time frame pivot
Invalidation — the pivot lows we wants held (“this is where we really want it to hold”)
Target — just about takes the prior highs
Timeframe — next few days (as of Jul 30)

UNI long
Trigger — consolidation/giraffe around the $3.90-3.94 reclaim, then long after another break
Target — around $7

BTC currently retesting the 7D & 30D rolling VWAPs from the underside.

Short term trade long: acceptance above 64k to take out some highs and potentially take out last week’s high if flow supports. Note: the 65k area has continued to remain supply recently.

So far this session, Coinbase and Binance spot buying has carried price and currently there is some spot supply showing up into this retest. If this starts unravelling, the above short term trade idea gets invalidated for now below ~63.4k with unsupportive flow.

Zooming out, last time the 7D and 30D intersected and there was an inability to trade above meaningfully (this area flipped to resistance and led into some more reflexivity to the downside), so this is a good mental framework moving forward.

This time around, the slope of the VWAPs is far more flat vs last time on the grind up to 80k+ due to the fact that even though July was a counter-trend month, price development was fairly slow to the upside (slow grind).

HTF: cautiously optimistic, believe BTC needs some more value development and ranging price action to form a base before a major turn in the trend.

Setup

Trigger — acceptance above 64k
Invalidation — below ~63.4k with unsupportive flow
Target — take out some highs, then last week’s high if flow supports (65k area still supply)
Timeframe — short term

Everybody knows where the Bitcoin analysis is headed. I’m still not interested, I still don’t really care.

I’m not eager to light money on fire. I like money too much to take subpar, inferior trades.

Refining the trigger

We’re losing the local inflection point.

Next time we reclaim the 4H 200s, I won’t say maybe range highs, maybe 72k. I’ll say maybe we get back into the range high at 67k, and that’s it. That reclaim would probably come in tandem with the 12H 200s, which matter more, we’ve reclaimed those once in nine months, versus maybe seven for the 4H.

Until then, I imagine we just continue chopping down to the range lows. If we bounce from support, nobody gets a cookie for that. We need to see actual momentum come into this market.

ETH

No trigger, no trade.

A reclaim here would be significant, we’ve not done it in nine months of a negative 60% downtrend, and the level is clean resistance that used to be support for a five-month range.

Probably not nothing when we manage to reclaim it.

The trend could continue the same way it has. At the same time, it’s called a trend, not a permanent.

HYPE and the $50 level

I don’t care about the 200 dailies here, I care about the $50 support level.

The 200 dailies happen to be trading around it. Reclaim the six-hour 200s, the big boy trend, and we target range highs but speculate on price discovery. Same argument that printed wealth since $35, and the only cool story I have for you in cryptoland the past six months.