There are people who've been yapping about 40k for ages, and I think they end up like the 12k crowd in 2022.

12k was a meme.

We got all the way down to 15k and people said no, we've got to wait for 12k, and a lot of those guys stayed perpetually sidelined the whole way up into 100k.

Don't be the 12k guy.

From a spot, portfolio-management standpoint, what's the difference between buying 15k and 12k?

My first spot buys in the 2023 cycle were around 17k, I didn't buy the bottom, and who gives a shit. If it trades up it doesn't end up mattering in the long run.

The macro plan played out

We went up in Q2, got bonked, and traded all the way down to 58k after a brutal sell-off. It was much faster than I expected, but I told you guys it'd be very similar to January.

From here, I think we bounce and build out this new range. I expect momentum loss in the lower 70s, and that bonks us back into a compression stage overlapping with the 2024 macro composite.

Staircase up, elevator down, that's been the meta for a while. From there I see us trading back into the mid to lower 60s.

Any of these 60k moves are value buys. I don't really expect us to trade much lower. If we lose the 2024 range, that invalidates 60k being a value buy and takes us into the 40s.

As we get close to Q3 I think we see some sort of fake out around the Q4 open, which may give us some fantastic dip-buying opportunities.

Summer drains the bid

You can see momentum loss setting in on the S&P 500.

Even though it may continue to make new all-time highs, the impulses have clearly been getting weaker. But I’m definitely not interested in shorting any of this.

We could range or get V recoveries into weaker highs. Big dips and I buy.

Metals

Gold and silver are long-term ride or die, no momentum right now but long-term plays.

Copper I'm still interested in buying a dip on, no FOMO. If it trades into the $6 region next week I'll probably buy it, but I'd dip my toes and average up rather than shove full stack.

Hoarding cash into Q3

Positioning is more or less the same: core is Bitcoin, S&P, and cash.

I have no FOMO around adding more Bitcoin. I grinded up my stack for years, and it's my biggest position. I want to add more, but I'd rather be patient for now.

I want to use the cash on what's worked, primarily S&P and maybe some NASDAQ, top off metals, open a copper trade if I get the chance.

I’m also eyeing some single names: Lockheed, IBM, Google, Apple. Not interested in SpaceX until it completes its likely initial selloff into a long-term bottoming structure.

Personal

Q3 I'm taking it a bit easier on myself with a few trips planned.

After 11 years the thing I've always struggled with is letting myself take a break, but you need to regain your passion and focus so you’re ready when the market is hot (hopefully in Q4).

Cheers and good luck everyone.

Today has been a clean momentum day, so I was looking to buy the dip.

I want to see BTC run with the weekly open momentum staying above 65.7k.

We got an expansionary candle through previous week's VWAP, shallow pullback, no perfect retest, next consolidation, next expansion.

The two targets: monthly value high around 67.2k, weekly value high around 68.3k. That's where I'd ease up and not be ultra aggressive, maybe look for offside bulls to hedge or short on an intraday basis.

The only place it makes sense to take a bearish, protective stance on the higher timeframe again is into the weekly trend around 73-74k.

Spot accumulation in the low 60s makes sense to me, same stance I took when we capitulated in February. These buys likely will age well in a few years.

Bears ran out of steam

All the bears could do after we dropped below the 2024 VWAP at 65k was swipe lower lows.

The flows at this pico bottom were just a bunch of longs opening. The bears didn't have any firepower to rip those longs out. Short squeeze after short squeeze ensued. Little signs of bear strength down there.

If you really look at the last 8 months of the bear market objectively, there has been little cryptocentric FUD. Barring any black swans, I think this generalized region ends up being the bear market bottom.

I bought 2 alts on spot

AKT was the first spot altcoin I picked up in a long time.

I bought during the Saylor FUD weekend, average around 57 or 58, and sitting close to a 50% gain.

I don't really feel like hedging. This could be the cycle bottom accumulation range. If it bleeds and creates new lows, I'll cut my losses. Otherwise I'm looking to sell into expansive moves above.

PEPE was just mechanical. It swept the 10/10 wick, and I bought some below it.

Maybe a year or two from now the market's ripping, memes get a pity pump, and it's a 2-3x. My invalidation on Pepe is literally zero.

That's pretty much it for this week. I hope you guys have a good week and I'll speak to you soon on Wednesday.

I'm choosing to be a bit risk on this week.

Alt relative strength looks nice, you pull up Spaghetti and most coins are outperforming BTC, so I'm locked in and hunting setups.

A bit annoyed I was afk over the weekend and missed JELLYJELLY when I knew it'd pump, but that's weekends for me.

It's actually very simple here

Bitcoin dictates everything.

After a huge sell-off and a big deviation lower, we’re now sitting at the bottom of the range.

You can ignore the short setup on the chart.

I think the push above 65k and the reclaim was the decision point for whether we run it back to the range highs. I'd rather anticipate the 10% ping back into the 70s over the next few days, because when BTC runs the alts we've talked about run with it.

Off the ceasefire I'm expecting a slow grindy trend rather than instant 10% candles, since the news itself only gave us 2-3%.

The watch list

NEAR, HYPE and ZEC are the top ones, and they're all the same setup that keeps working for me: retest, prove it's support, let a little consolidation form, then long the continuation on the break.

NEAR's done a really nice breakthrough with lots of higher lows behind it.

HYPE is the one I want to get aggressive on. The last runner was an absolute banger at 67%, and on a deviation and reclaim up here I'd go for another leg, though I won't top blast it at the range high without a setup.

ZEC is a good contender at this level, USELESS is starting to look like HYPE, and WLD this morning was a beautiful setup.

I'm not looking for shorts.

I trade two or three setups now because they work, especially with this relative strength, so I just need the pullback and then I long.

Au revoir.

63k was the line in the sand.

We got spot buying mostly from Coinbase this session, broke through, and traded up into 67-68k as expected.

It’s worth keeping an eye on this region as there are multiple forms of confluence for it to act as resistance: monthly value area high and the 30d rolling VWAP (top right below).

But price is also looking to accept back inside developing quarterly (bottom left) and developing yearly value (bottom right) ~65k.

There's tailwind off the back of the Iran-US deal, dragging all the coins up. I'm watching flow here. If most of it is trigger-happy to short, that piles up more positioning to unravel in the same area, which leads to more upside.

TLDR; 67-70k ripe for reversion if spot is selling and perps are buying.

Most alts have repriced toward the 1 std dev band of developing yearly, some sitting right above. Good area to watch for strength or weakness.

Positioning: longed some alts over the weekend, shaved some today. Observing BTC for a potential fade if the evidence presents itself.

I'm on vacation, so keeping this short…

I will keep running the same playbook as previous months as long as BTC protects this breakout.

I’ll find and buy outperformers, like HYPE, and assume they will continue their upward trajectory unbothered.

There is literally nothing else to do.