The HTF trend remains up, so I’m bullish and buying dips.

Right now, we're wedged between 110K support and 120K resistance with Q4 seasonality about to kick in.

I’m hoping for a dip → higher low → rally off quarterly open → potential fake-out → continuation higher.

That said, I’ve been slowly adding to large caps and will happily buy higher if BTC gives me the risk-on signal.

Key Levels:

• 110K = macro support and invalidation level. Below this, we're wrong for a while

• 113K = higher low territory for dip buying

• 118K = significant resistance to clear

• 120K = major breakout level

Risk Management:

Invalidation below 110K for positioning (thesis invalidation not until sub-90K). Using 1% position adds on dips — slow and steady approach, not all-in.

My Plan:

• Buy any moves toward 110K support (hopefully higher)

• Don't FOMO at resistance

• Scale into large caps: BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE

• Avoid random shitcoins until BTC gives the risk-on signal

Bottom Line: I’m bullish Q4, so I’m building allocation on dips. Tune out the emotional flip-floppers. Stay patient. Stay bullish.

BTC 

Our ideas from last week played out extremely well:

• Bearish momentum stalled out at the May/June composite value area high (cVAH)

• Price built value between 109-113

• Once 113 broke, we saw a clean rotation up to 117, filling our CME gap

• Finally, we tagged a key level at the July cVAL and saw some exhaustion from the bulls

The monthly VWAP has been in a nice uptrend with good respect:

Bulls need to hold above 114.2 (monthly VAH) to maintain bullish momentum. A break below likely triggers a rotation down toward the monthly VWAP around 112.

Looking at the EMAs, the H12 trend has been a reliable indicator for momentum on a week to week basis:

It currently aligns with the mVAH, adding to local bullish urgency. Break below and things open up for the bears.

SOL

Once again, the H1 trend was goated for trend continuation, rallying along it for a 20% move.

Losing it was your signal to derisk and lock in gains.

If the daily trend comes into play again around 220, it gives bulls a prime setup for HTF continuation.

ONDO

ONDO is a near a key HTF level, so a reclaim could give us a big move. Setting alerts here:

You see this pattern a lot in previously strong alts: big long selloff followed by a long, slow accumulation range.

Expect things to play out more slowly with higher-cap coins like this.

BONK

Similar setup to ONDO: we’re looking for a reclaim of a massive HTF level.

I didn’t take this trade earlier today.

Even though I saw some bullish divergences on RSI/AO, I wanted to see a reclaim on the lower timeframe, and ideally, relative strength on spaghetti.

And if you look at the chart now, you can see why I don’t blindly long these setups without some strength.

TLDR; Setting alerts and letting trades come to me.

Currently flat on perps heading into a volatile week with FOMC on Wed and quad witching (key options expiration) on Friday.

Plan:

• Above 30/90d VWAP (112-113): targeting 118s, extend to 120s+ if HVN flips

• Below with poor price action: back to being defensive/selective

Watching flow for dip entries.

VWAP scan for BTC looks constructive and aligns with pivotal areas on monthly/quarterly:

• Monthly VWAP ~112, 1st dev band ~114

• Quarterly VWAP ~114.7, 1st dev band ~118.8

Leaning towards continued constructive price action to highs if BTC maintains ~112-113, particularly if there’s a passive bid and aggressive buying on any meaningful dips this week.

ETH

ETH continues to show HTF resilience, maintaining higher lows on the daily market structure.

The high-timeframe uptrend is best represented by the H4 200 MAs.

I'm looking for another higher low on ETH, before expanding away from the 4-year range

If the H4 200 trend breaks, the $4,000 level will act as my 'line in the sand' for bullish arguments.

HYPE

HYPE has been one of the strongest performers for months, recently breaking its two-month range into price discovery.

H4 200 MAs have developed as a respectable trend again, and since it’s broken out, I’m assuming further price discovery.

In the event of a pullback, the $50 region becomes a major inflection point and high-interest area for HTF swing longs.

This zone offers strong confluence: previous range highs flipping to support, plus the rising H4 200 MAs that initiated this rally converging at the same level.