The core idea was trend up to 80-84k and reject. If we got over 84k convincingly we could aim for 90-100k, although I didn't think that was likely.

As we've progressed through May, it makes a lot of sense to be more defensive, but I have zero interest in selling my Bitcoin.

The most aggressive thing I'm going to do is hedge it with the intention of buying more at the end of all this.

Shallow side dip goes into the 70s. Heavier side, the 60s or 50s.

My gut tells me we don't make fresh lows below the previous range, but I never really try to predict that stuff. I just adopt a defensive mindset when momentum stalls and play it by ear day by day.

TLDR pivoting to defense unless we get a reclaim above 30D rolling VWAP, looking for the hedge, expecting a pullback toward the previous range lows.

Preparing for the bottom

Equities have been ridiculously strong in Q2 and my TradFi port is at an all-time high.

Core thesis is that the bid in risk assets dries up as we get into summer. Stronger asset classes consolidate, weaker ones bleed.

I want to use this as an opportunity to position for a bullish Q4 in risk. S&P I expect to consolidate, not pull back hard. Maybe similar to Q1, with less selling.

The rest of the port

Core is BTC, S&P, and cash. Then NASDAQ, gold, silver, REMX, XLE, and XLU.

S&P 500: Expecting consolidation, not a hard pullback. Any dip is an opportunity to add for what should be a strong Q4.

NASDAQ: Held alongside the S&P, same Q4 thesis.

Cash: Dry powder for the summer.

Gold: Not looking great right now. I own it for diversification, not growth.

Silver: Okayish. Volatility on silver is absolutely insane right now. Holding a small bag I never sold off.

Copper: The metal trade. Fundamental thesis is strong. If I wanted to seek out performance in metals, it would be this.

REMX: Getting obliterated since 110. Not sweating it, that's just the way longer-term swing trades go.

XLE: Looks pretty good right now. Same exact vibe as REMX, longer-term hold for me.

XLU: Cutting this week unless it shows strength. Underwater 2%, undersized, no real reason to hold it when REMX and XLE have stronger fundamental backing.

Cheers.

Feels good to be back.

We've been talking about Bitcoin coming into a high time frame area of interest right around 82 to 84k.

Overlapping resistance from the weekly trend, all-time high anchored VWAP, prior quarterly value area high, yearly value area high. A lot of overlapping resistance in that region, so it makes sense that there will be a reaction.

The 12-hour trend was very clean from the 65k pico bottom all the way up for the past six weeks, but we’ve lost that trend right at the HTF resistance region.

Last week was the first week in six that we weren't able to stay above prior week's values, and the first week we closed below them.

Plans are the reverse of the uptrend

Past several weeks I've talked a lot about longing dips into previous week's VWAP and value area low.

This week is the reverse.

Highest conviction continuation short would be a squeeze back up into previous week's value area low around 79k, ideally with some shorts closing.

The flat monthly open sits around 76.3k, and prior swing low into 75-76k is where I'd expect a bounce. High to low we'd be 6-8% down at that point, a strong single-sided move without a counter-trend bounce.

The hedge

I partially hedged my spot off the 12H trend loss. Didn't feel super comfy full hedging into the pico bottom after Friday's nuke, but wanted some downside protection.

We're up 40% off the lows, nothing to scoff at, and I wanted to lock some of that in.

If we drive into previous week's value, I'll fully hedge. Invalidation on the whole hedge idea is above 84k. Trading above the all-time high anchored VWAP into old value starts looking a lot less downtrendy and a lot more like we're just building balance.

Spot accumulation plans

This baby Bitcoin pullback gave back the entirety of most alts’ gains.

Multiple weeks of grind up eviscerated in a week. No narrative, no fuel, no nothing, just following the beta of Bitcoin. To me they're in very, very early accumulation ranges.

Last week at the top I started getting questions, "Hey Doc, should we pick up spot?"

If you were feeling that FOMO, this pullback is your opportunity to start thinking about how and when you want to pick up spot.

Hyperliquid doesn't give a damn

$43 was the Q4 value area high, and Q1's interactions with it were beautiful.

Now we're holding above it after rejecting from it forever. Getting a strong clearance above 43 with all this consolidation tells me that I should be in dip buying mode right now.

HYPE doesn't give a damn what Bitcoin is doing. Last time Bitcoin bled out from 90k to 60k, Hyperliquid rallied from 20 to 30, completely against the grain.

It's set the precedent. First target on a dip into the mid-low 40s is 50. Above 50, I’m just going for all-time high.

ZEC is the other one

The hourly trend was the most goated trend literally from $300 to $600.

That trend is lost, but ZEC's already showing really good respect for the daily. As long as it holds the daily, this is another one I can stay bullish on.

Outside of these two coins there's really nothing super strong in this market.

Have a good week. I'll see you Paragon bros on Wednesday for the live.

Me before my ZEC long fully roundtripped.

BTC lost momentum into the HTF trend and is currently trading into prior month's value (top right), nearing the quarterly VWAP (bottom left).

Passive spot remains pretty stacked on the bid side, but Coinbase and Binance spot takers have continued to aggressively sell thus far this session.

Equities are also pulling back after 6+ weeks of green candles, taking out the prior high.

Swung a short from the highs on BTC and will be trading rotations. ~75-76 is a key area to provide an interim bounce. Will adjust on the fly according to flow, but sensing a shift in the tide favoring downside/chop.

Summer is typically when everyone fucks off, but these next few weeks are the best time to pay close attention to the environment. Typically a great time to pick up cheap risk assets going into September.

The local Bitcoin weakness we discussed last week materialized.

Now we're seeing a pullback into our inflection point on higher timeframes.

This major support level consists of the 12H 200 MAs (a respectable multi-month trend, both recently and over the past few years) and the previous range highs.

As long as we hold the inflection point around 73k, we could still see a larger (bear market relief) rally into the 2D 200 MAs around 90k.

If instead we lose that inflection point, deviate back inside the range and negate the multi-month trend breakout, we get to go back to playing defense, and remind ourselves that the environment was never all that favorable to begin with.