Clicked a lot of buttons this morning. Not the best session, but I'll take it.

Two things to watch this week: NVDA earnings Wednesday, PPI Friday.

I don't personally care about these things, but if everyone else does, they can give you trade opportunities. Pay attention.

There's a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and AI doomerism everywhere which is going to weigh on risk assets.

Equities and gold

Still looking to accumulate equities for the long-term, but momentum loss has been present for a while and today's reaction is bearish.

I'm not going to try to predict whether we get a 2% dip or something larger.

Either way, I'm eager to buy more of the same rare earth and energy plays.

TLDR; We stalled short-term, but feels like a dip-buying setup forming.

Started the gold bag. Whenever I have a good trading week and want to park profits somewhere safe, gold is the answer.

Metals keep getting bid while uncertainty peaks, and gold looks a lot better than silver right now.

XLE and REMX are still up around 25% from where I was pointing them out. Not sprinting to add more up here, but I'll buy dips when I get them.

Bitcoin

The macro low is probably not in, so I'm still hedged.

But I do think we are in the bottoming process. If we don't round out here we probably get one more leg down into the 40s.

Right now though, being risk on in this asset class is stupid short to medium term.

I'm patiently watching value to build between 60 and 70k, and I'm not going to sprint to close out my hedge just to see it drop another 10k.

I'm in cockroach mode, surviving so I'm ready when the good times return.

TLDR; Bearish medium term. Fade above 70k, look for longs sub-65k. Until the 7-day and 30-day rolling VWAPs flip, I can't make a bull argument.

Current portfolio

BTC (fully hedged), long S&P, NASDAQ, silver, gold, REMX, XLE. Trading profits going into gold for now.

We're in the pain days when other people are giving up.

I'm staying sharp by day-trading and focusing on my diet, sleep and exercise.

Don't get lazy. Cheers.

We've been ping-ponging in this range for two weeks, rejecting from the highs and holding the lows.

Large aggressive shorts keep coming into every local bottom, and we've been able to fade them, taking longs for intraday reversions.

And it worked again last night.

But BTC's failure to tag range highs changes things

I had real hopes we'd get a tag of 70k when we formed that bottom.

Bulls had a fantastic opportunity for some relief back toward composite value high, but instead we failed to hold the H1 and H4 trends.

I'm genuinely shocked that failed.

Now we're putting in lower highs and lower lows, back below composite value low. The ping-pong has shifted to just a grind down.

That said, the big expansion candle last night was a failed breakdown because it was mostly perp-driven.

Shorts coming into the lows and diamond-handing

When participants diamond-hand positions, that's different from dumb money piling in at lows and getting forced out. It could be informed flow.

I've seen this before. Positions build quietly, then a wave of selling starts the next week. Not saying that's what this is, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

TLDR; BTC is bearish on every timeframe and bearish on flow. Bulls legitimately have nothing right now.

Plans for this week

I'd love a climax flush into the low 60s. That's where the high-confidence longs are for me. Until then:

Thick bids + aggressive shorts at lows + perp-driven (not spot) = fade for intraday long reversion

If we bounce to 67.8k (CME gap, quarterly value low), that's a decent spot to look for short opportunities.

The highest EV setups for me right now are rangebound levels with triggers, clean premiums and discounts.

Take care.

Been AFK a few days, which was genuinely nice. Didn't miss much.

The market is still absolute shite with the odd scam pump that lasts about three seconds, and that's it.

PIPPIN was the one thing worth calling out

Classic example of why we take profits. Beautiful trade, took profit around the range highs, and it's basically round-tripped to entry now.

Lesson: Take profits on highly illiquid dog shit coins.

I'm watching alts like ZEC

But only if we actually see relative strength, a break of the downtrend and a bid on BTC.

Everyone’s asking me where I’m going to buy ETH

ETH is hot garbage.

I could be tempted if we get down to around 1500 simply because it's at the bottom of this high time frame range and previous all-time highs.

But it has to put in a higher low on the high timeframe first and show me some strength.

One thing that I keep coming back to is stable coin market cap

It went up for months and months, but now it's in a downtrend.

To me that means chips are leaving the casino, which confirms what we already know: don't be playing the market like an idiot.

Where I’d put my foot on the gas

If BTC can hold above 70-71k, we'll get massive alt rotations.

I'd make more in that week than I probably have in the last couple of months, but we're not there yet.

Until BTC reclaims 66.6k and shows some actual bull bias, I'm just watching.

On that bombshell, I'll love you and leave you.

Big week which started with a dip on Sunday and mean reversion early Monday session.

NVDA earnings on Wed is a crucial event, considering this is what has been carrying most of the rally on equities.

Zooming out to the BTC daily chart, every sell-off since Feb 6th has been followed by a period of rangebound price action.

BTC is currently trading under the 66k pivot point after rejecting from that area earlier today.

This general area is the pivot to play a rotation back up, otherwise we will likely see price trade into the range lows again.

Two weeks ago we pointed this out about HYPE:

HYPE is now trading below $27.

A clear example of a snowball of weakness turning into a snowman: