I understand why everybody feels bearish right now, but being pessimistic about things has never really served me in any meaningful way.

I’m staying optimistic long-term but protecting myself while risk markets bleed.

The BTC hedge is off

I closed out my BTC hedge because of the weekend move, which was close enough to what I was originally looking for.

The 62-day hedge paid well, over 2% of my position in funding alone from the perp short, probably 2.3-2.4%.

I did not buy any additional Bitcoin spot, that's something I definitely want to do eventually, but I'm taking it slow and steady.

I don't want to shoot myself in the foot and go balls deep long into Bitcoin and then have it trade down, because my gut tells me we're probably likely to trade down into the low 60s.

Not saying the low is in

I do think that realistically we probably do see lower prices, like a stab into the lower 60s or maybe even the upper 50s.

Spot long doesn't mean I won't re-hedge right, if I feel like I need to open a new hedge in the next couple weeks I will.

We've been in this range from the beginning of February, almost two months now, and I could see it do another month no problem. I have zero issues with that.

72 to 74k

There's clearly not a whole lot of volume that was transacted on the down move in early Feb.

I've been calling it 72 but 74 to 72 whatever you want to call it, once we actually get through here you could see a very quick move up in the direction of the mid 80s, upper 80s.

But that’s fighting higher timeframe momentum the whole way, so probably not the most probable setup, but if I see it materialize I will look to take it.

I've got cash ready to be deployed, just patiently waiting for a reason to shove a bunch of poker chips in on the long-term holds across TradFi (equities) and BTC.

I just need to see the efficient bleeding from the S&P to stop or a big selling climax.

My short from the quarterly VWAP was closed on Friday, partial profits around 68k, full closure around 65k.

We got another perfect test of the quarterly value area low, and I'm seeing the same pivot hints I always talk about.

Orderflow clues at the lows

TLDR from Friday's flow: very, very thick order books on the spot bid side, confluent with the quarterly value area low and composite value area low.

ES bled down for five hours in a straight line, closed almost 2% down, and during that entire move Bitcoin was trying its best to just hold its lows.

Coinbase was selling spot very heavily into these lows, into very thick spot order books, and we got a glimpse of some shorts just unwinding.

For me, this is the first hint of that pivot mindset: thick bids in the books, early short positioning unwinding. Late positioning is the one that's at risk.

68.8k is the first checkpoint

Books at the lows have neutralized now.

Mid 68k to 69k is the next major resistance, that's your previous month's VWAP, previous week's VWAP, and there's an ask wall on Binance around that level.

That’s where I would consider paying myself and weighing the odds of blind holding.

Best case, Bitcoin trades a little higher, we get some selling to close the week as SPX trades lower, and then we see if the market bids Bitcoin back at that quarterly value low.

SPX is near prior ATH retest and the previous year's VWAP, only 2-3% below. If the indexes bounce, it should be good for Bitcoin to open up Q2.

Where this breaks

We want to see the Q1 value area low continue to be respected.

Any failed selling effort through this region is a reversionary opportunity. But if we get a strong move that doesn't retrace, that gives an opportunity to play expansion to the downside.

As a multi-year Bitcoin bull I'm treating any major move down as an opportunity to buy spot.

My risk is Bitcoin goes to zero, my reward is Bitcoin goes to all-time high. The risk-reward stacks in my favor the lower we get. I've been fighting the FUD, moving perp profits into spot BTC, and have cash set aside for more.

I've been running a dashboard that tracks all 545 tradeable assets on Binance in real time.

For each one, it measures how far price has drifted from its own rolling average, weighted by volume. Think of it as a "how abnormal is this move?" score for every coin at once. One view, refreshing every 5 minutes.

Heading into Q2 with BTC pressing quarterly value area lows, the dashboard is showing what you'd expect, a wide spread.

A handful of assets have moved so far from their own average that statistically, it almost never happens while others have barely moved. These could provide trading signals.

It also tracks speed.

Something that crashed to an extreme in one 5-minute candle is a different setup than something that drifted there over half an hour. One is a liquidity event, the other is a trend.

Mode of operation right now: let the dashboard flag the outliers, wait for the speed of the move to confirm the opportunity.

I'll be releasing more details on this tool and how I built it with Claude Code later this week. Stay tuned here in cookbook.

In previous editions, I discussed the breakdown of 4H 200 MAs on the S&P, which would likely allow for a deeper pullback into our D 200 MAs.

Those D 200 MAs have been very important trend representations for the past decade, and have helped provide insight towards the higher timeframe bias for the stock market overall.

As it stands, I think it's fair to say that trend has recently broken as well.

Using the same methodology that allowed us to anticipate the downward move into the D 200 MAs in the first place, we can continue that frame of thinking, scaled to a more significant degree.

This is the same thought process I applied back in March 2025 as well.

So in similar fashion, the loss of the D 200 MAs allows for a pullback towards the W 200 MAs, a trend that has, for the most part, represented generational bottoms throughout the past ~15 years.

One thing to note, we're discussing incredibly high timeframe outlooks here. I would expect this analysis to develop in coming months. Back in March 2025 it only took a few weeks, and that was a bit of an outlier in terms of velocity/volatility.

The directional bias stands, until the market decides to show strength in the form of reclaims and higher-highs once again.