The conflict is going to be the overarching theme going into this week.

If it continues to escalate, I do think risk assets are going to struggle, but ultimately that's going to create an opportunity for us to buy.

As I've said a bunch of times, I have zero interest in trying to catch the short on these indexes.

I've got money just sitting in a stupid money market account right now while I'm waiting to buy.

Moved cash over to brokerages ahead of time because this isn’t crypto where your money shows up in minutes. It can take days.

BTC bottom zone

I do think there's a reasonable expectation that we're building out the macro bottom on the corn right now.

The 60k to 70k range is playing out quite nicely, with 65k getting defended. Long-term, I think this will be a value zone.

But I'm not calling that the absolute low is in.

I think you could still go into drawdown. But I'm moving in the direction of probably closing out the hedge here pretty soon. It's been nice, I'm getting paid to be short, so it's not really been something I've been sprinting to get out of.

I'd rather be late than early.

I'd rather be buying as Bitcoin is trending upwards versus buying as it trends downwards.

If you’re thinking of buying, take a step back and think: if I buy here and we go to 50k, what am I going to do?

You need to have a plan.

This same price point after the dip comes through is way less risky, because it's post the wipeout. Price is the same, but the risk is lower.

Medium timeframe

72k is pretty significant resistance right now.

If we start to really accept over that level we could teleport up into the 90s pretty quickly.

The 30-day rolling VWAP is flattening out for the first time in a while, which means we’re not as bearish MTF.

Maybe we bonk once more and come back. We'll have to play it day by day.

Huge emphasis on intraday right now, that's basically almost all my volume.

That's pretty much it. Cheers.

I had an excellent month scalping (see below), and I'm out of town for a bit.

But I wanted to remind you of something...

These are the times where you set yourself apart from the others.

When others are quitting or can’t take it.

Keep learning.

Send in questions.

Back next week.

Thought we were going to sell off and die when I saw the candle last night, but we've actually got a bit of relief.

It doesn’t change much for me on BTC because I’m not going to diddle in the middle of a range, right? I trade extremes, which are at 65k and 71k.

Alts setups I’m watching

JELLYJELLY is kind of dead, after a huge run-up and scam dump.

What I want to see here is build out a little range and then potentially long the breakout.

XMR is still very high on my radar

It's one of the better looking alts out there, and privacy is one of the best narratives crypto's got alongside RWA.

I’m looking to join on strength.

If it breaks out, I genuinely believe it runs to the highs and carries on. If Bitcoin doesn't shit the bed, XMR could do well.

One coin I think could run is CHZ

CT is looking for a narrative to cling on to, so what better than a World Cup coin?

If we see LTF relative strength across a key level, I'm grabbing some. Not massive size, it's a shitcoin, but it's on Binance.

I want a bag of HYPE but…

The price action is just so janky, and I can't justify buying here.

Everything else is the death ball of momentum

Most crypto charts look like this.

Just consistent lower highs, absolute pain across the board.

We're in that time-based capitulation phase where people overtrade, get chopped up, and blow accounts.

Meanwhile, oil is trading like an absolute shitcoin and has outperformed holding ETH for 5 years. The dollar index is flying, which is bad for risk on. It's just not great.

That said, one of my mates who's a stock trader is going to help me build some scanners for stocks, which is a good sign.

Because once everyone pivots to TradFi, crypto will be running again. That part of the cycle innit?

TLDR; Don't blow up. Build stuff. Journal. Review your trades. Do all the stuff you never want to do during a full risk-on bull run.

As mentioned last week, I’m still trading off of the rotational value developed over the last few weeks.

I’m not swinging for the fences. Playing reversion at the extremes and in the direction of breaks with short hold times.

CPI on Wednesday could bring some short-term volatility.

Other than that, the key reference areas remain the same: 65k on the low side, 70k on the high side.

Price is approaching the high side again with Coinbase buying throughout the session and Binance spot again starting to unload in this area.

After ~4 months of consolidation near ATHs and a ~10 month uptrend, we can now discuss a breakdown of SPY more objectively, as opposed to speculatively.

From here, I must ladder my assumptions into the next most logical inflection point, the 200 D MAs and the daily demand zone surrounding them.

We're already nearly retesting them as support, and it’s a key region to hold as support.

For reference, seeing the loss of the 200 D MAs back in March of 2025 allowed me to successfully anticipate a more accelerated selloff in the broader stock market.

The subsequent reclaim of that trend told me the same thing in reverse: resumption of uptrend across the board and into price discovery.

There's no point fixing things that aren't broken, so I’m following the same blueprint. A loss of the 200D MAs inflection point allows for a much larger selloff into the 200 Weekly moving averages, which have represented stocks’ up only mantra for the past 15 years.

The philosophy is the same, the magnitude with which it gets applied is drastically different based on each timeframe.

This is all relevant to crypto because the S&P paves the way for risk assets, and we've never really seen sustained crypto outperformance when the stock market has been weak.

HYPE

HYPE continues to be the most interesting coin in crypto.

Unlike most alts, HYPE reclaimed the trend and key support after a false breakdown. The 4H 200 MAs continue to be a respected HTF trend.

I'm watching for a convincing breakout above that $36 level, which would be a deviation back inside of the prior multi-month range, and would allow for a push toward $50.