Macro: Fuck you higher

I have very few bearish arguments.

Medium term: Bulls stepping up, I’m buying the dip

Main scenarios:

1. We trade higher toward 120k then pullback to 118k

2. Pullback from 116k here and bid around 112k

Also, I think it makes a lot of sense to hunt relative strength from the handful of good alts.

Closing thoughts

The late Q3/early Q4 "fuck you moves" I mentioned played out.

From here, I think BTC heats up and makes fresh highs.

I'm happy with my BTC allocation, but given the chance, I will send a lev long. I’m also starting to consider de-boomering my port and picking up a couple of alts.

Bulls want to hold 114k for continuation.

Multiple levels converge there: the monthly VWAP, the hourly trend, defense of the expansion candle, etc.

As I always say, you don’t want to see perfect retests if you’re truly bullish. Right now that perfect retest and full retrace of the expansion candle is at 113.8k.

So if we break back below 114k, it brings the CME gap fill into play around 110.6k.

What are the odds bro?

10-15% we go straight up into price discovery from here with no retest.

70-80% we come back down for lower prices.

This is one of those rare times where zooming in makes more sense than zooming out. Focus on local invalidations to stay nimble.

TLDR; If bulls stay strong above 114, we could see 118. If not, I’ll look to long lower.

One thing I never really talk about, but notice more and more as I get older, is that curiosity really accelerates your learning.

Ask yourself questions.

Before you enter a trade.

After you close a trade.

At the end of each week.

Hit reply and ask us questions.

Never be afraid to ask.

Because there is a direct correlation between curiosity and success in this game… at least from what I've seen.

BTC is attempting to accept into the upper balance.

Key Areas

• 30d & 90d rolling VWAP around 114k

• the previous week high (116k) to previous month high (118k) region is prone to reversion if aggressive longs pile in and momentum stalls

Zooming out, the 365d rolling VWAP serves as a coarse divider for HTF bias:

HYPE is one of the strongest coins in the market.

It reclaimed the HTF trend, deviated back inside the range above $41 and pushed all the way back to the range high at $49.

Any strong breakout of $49 and we should see continuation into price discovery.

If we pull back, I’d look for a higher low on the daily market structure confluent with the H3 200 MAs.

But strong coins often don’t give you the ideal pullback you’re looking for.

Therefore, I may divert my attention to the local H1 200 MAs trend. This is what first showed us a meaningful rally was possible in the first place, and it allows us to adapt to the velocity of the chart.