I’m sticking to my high-timeframe thesis of Q3 chop leading into a Q4 trend, so I expect low momentum over the next week as BTC forms a bottom.

My plan is to keep buying dips on benchmarks like BTC and wait for a clear momentum shift before buying alts.

Levels

Key support and resistance levels are unironically the round numbers: 90k, 100k, 110k, 120k.

For more in-depth planning I use volume profile (image below) and look for where the high-volume and low-volume nodes (HVNs and LVNs) line up with VWAPs.

Major HVNs at 118k and 105k would be key areas to get through for continuation.

What if I’m wrong and the cycle top is in?

I’m a trend trader and accept that I will lose some money if a top is already in.

That’s part of the game I’ve decided to play and am ok with it because I think we go up, and the risk to reward is still favorable.

I protect myself by knowing what it looks like if I’m wrong.

TLDR; Treat twitter as entertainment not signal. Buying dips on benchmarks like BTC. Waiting for structure shift (higher lows) before buying alts.

BTC

Last week, BTC saw heavy selling into the May/June composite value area high (cVAH) around 108k. Whales were exiting thousands of BTC, yet price stalled.

If 108k is lost, then I’d look for a rotation to 102k, the cVAL from May/June. Optimistic for relief locally speaking.

The biggest fight will come at the 112k region.

BTC CME

Paying attention to the CME chart has been a hidden weapon for me recently.

It’s had very clean respect for the weekly trend (D 100 + 200 EMA), so I’d speculate that a cycle top is probably in when it’s lost. For now, we're in an opportunity period.

We still have the 113k – 117k CME gap to fill.

ETH

4100 has a bunch of confluence:

• Weekly PoB (Point of Breakdown) from last cycle in gray

• H4 200 EMA (bottom of the daily trend)

• Local cVAL (local range low)

This is high-quality location for bulls to defend.

ETH is a better trade than BTC right now due to more bullish EMAs, VWAPs and market structure. Also, the ETHBTC chart is holding the daily trend.

ETHBTC

ETHBTC is still bullish but showing weaker drives on the daily timeframe.

If the daily trend is lost, then I’d look for a weekly trend tag. This would mean BTC outperformance over ETH in the medium term.

I’ve been afk for most of the summer and just locking back in full-time now.

TLDR

• I’m taking some aggressive intraday plays to get back into a groove (see below example)

• S&P is showing bearish momentum loss on the daily chart, which often leads to corrections

• But BTC may have frontrun much of the selling

• ETH: People often lose their minds in the chop around ATHs. I’m patiently waiting for an entry.

• Still in trades (SOL, BERT, etc)

Short-term rotation example

I took a short-term rotational trade on WLFI yesterday because it was showing relative strength on spaghetti and respect for my memeline levels.

It didn’t run like I drew it, but it’s always a good idea to look for relative strength on newer coins as they can give quick, volatile moves.

September historically favors equity weakness. Portfolio managers return after Labor Day and the NFP on 9/6 sets up potential volatility.

BTC has been in local downtrend since August 13th and traded into a pivotal 2-month balance. The mid-100s area offers reversion opportunities.

Watching for mean reversion while staying alert to volatility risks.

See you later this month…