I’ve been pretty steady with my plans throughout the year, but now we’re at that key moment where we’re going to see if they play out.

I think we’re going up

We’re macro trend respecters first and foremost, right? The S&P is in an uptrend, so we’re obviously going to be respecting that.

If there’s any dips into the direction of like 7,600, then that’s the value buy territory right now.

You’re getting the overlaps between the rolling VWAP and the macro composite structure.

Going into Q4, my overarching thesis for how I’m trying to play risk is to bid the liquidation candle that I think will probably come.

I think it’s reasonable to expect that in Q4 we could make new all-time highs into the 8,200 to 8,400 territory.

Leaning towards plan number two

Starting off with the Bitcoin macro conversation. I think the bottom is basically in.

What I was yapping about last week was I wanted to see this range get left behind and see us trade up towards 90k, to let this just be a pit stop within a larger impulsive move.

It’s getting more and more clear that that’s not looking to be the case. There’s just not significant momentum on Bitcoin right now.

So as it stands, I’m looking for either it to continue to build up this range and sweep the lows and buy it, or for a higher macro low pulling back into the 70k region.

If we just trade up and never do the pullback, you’re never going to hear me cry about that. “Oh, I never got to take the leverage swing trade.” Who cares? My port’s going up at that point.

Plan number one of sending into the 90s is looking less likely right now. It can still happen, but I’m leaning more towards plan number two.

I think any sort of dip, whether it ends up being a shallow dip towards 83k or a much larger dip just below 70k, that’s what I’m looking for over the next few weeks.

Good coins only

A big talking point for us with altcoins right now is going to be the dispersion argument.

Over the next couple of weeks, you want to really be paying attention to what coins are good and what coins are bad.

You’re not going to see just all coins trading up equally later in this quarter. You need to be selective.

Watchlist

ZEC — Probably will keep bleeding out short-term and then continue its macro uptrend.

HYPE — Looks phenomenal and it’s probably going to keep doing what it’s been doing.

PUMP — A classic dip buyer. Hopefully you guys are copy trading Doc on this thing.

VVV — Same thing, although it’s been locally kind of weak right now.

LIT — Relative strength today on a day where the market’s kind of red. Definitely paying close attention to it.

DOGE — I bought it as a preemptive play to the idea that memes will run later this quarter. For the time being, I’m just chilling in it.

It’s grind season. I’m a little bit defensive on risk, but I’m waiting for an opportunity to really send things.

Good luck out there and cheers.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: SPX dip buy

Entry — any dips into the direction of like 7,600, that’s my value buy territory

Target — new all-time highs into the 8,200, 8,300, maybe even 8,400 territory

Timeframe — Q4, as we close out November and December

Setup: BTC leverage swing on the macro pullback

Entry — in a perfect world, just under 70k, but we may not get that

Setup: SOL add on the pullback

Entry — towards at least $110, and towards $100 I’m going to shove a ton more

Timeframe — over the next couple weeks

So we’re trading into that same 87k level that we’ve been talking about for a while.

This generalized region has multiple overlapping resistance, namely the two-month composite value area low, the 2025 yearly value area low, and the current developing two standard deviation value area high on the yearly.

So what we need up here is very strong taker flow, a strong spot bid, and aggressive longs being rewarded.

Rinse and repeat

For me, it’s very, very simple.

If we drop back into the comp and start trading below 85k, we’ll probably end up making another rotation down to composite value low, probably clean up some of the lows or trade into the 82s.

Absolute giga banger

PUMP has obviously been a banger. Back in the September 14th edition I laid it out as the swing I really wanted and picked up a starter bag around $0.0036 into the crab.

We’re up like 80% from entry, absolute giga banger for those who took it.

I’m a little bit concerned with the $0.007 level. It’s the listing pump from when it launched at TGE, and the lower high complacency shoulder into its previous bear trend.

From a range perspective, the lows, mid and high have been respected. The range high is right around $0.007, so I think this level could be pretty sticky.

Maybe I hedge out some spot, maybe I just sell a little bit of spot to lock some profits in.

I’m pretty happy with the positioning here and I’m just going to let this ride. I really do think it’s going to go to 10 billion market cap or higher. I personally don’t see why it wouldn’t.

The core plan on Zcash

I think potentially a local bottom is forming on ZEC, a couple of days of momentum loss.

There’s a potential compression trade forming under the 4H EMA, so any kind of momentum loss and compression here could lead to a pop up.

But I’m not super interested in trading Zcash right here.

If we do end up getting a dip into the $1,100 or $1,000 region sometime in Q4, and it’s confluent with the weekly trend, I want to jump on that.

All right, boys. I’ll see you soon.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: BTC through 87k

Trigger — strong taker flow through 87k to eat through the asks

Target — 89k, then kind of 92k

Setup: ZEC swing

Entry — a dip lower into the weekly trend, if I can get $1,100 or $1,000 or something like that

Target — higher highs

Timeframe — Sometime in Q4, if the dip comes

Alts really aren’t giving the outperformance I need right now, except for PUMP.

We’re printing higher highs on price and lower highs on RSI, but not at an extreme, so this just means it’s slowing down.

Money is made in the waiting

If Bitcoin breaks out to the upside, then we’re gonna have plenty of alts to long.

Until then I’m not going to get chopped up pressing the long button when breakouts just fail. Right now, there is just no setup that makes me go, I really want to ape this.

If we do get rotations on altcoins, I’m not afraid of longing the highs on PUMP. If we flip the $0.0065 region, and it looks good, I have no problem longing into that.

Bit of a quiet outlook this week, but we take what the market gives. Au revoir.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: PUMP long

Trigger — if we’re getting rotations on altcoins and we flip the $0.0065 region, I’m looking for longs

Back with analysis next week.

The 8H 200s are the very high timeframe trend.

There actually was an actionable setup on the 8H 200s with support confluence. I opted not to take this.

What started this downtrend? The loss of the 3H 200s. What started that? The loss of the hourly 200s.

So we could reclaim the hourly 200s and it actually wouldn’t mean anything, it would just mean that maybe we’re due for a bearish retest into the 3H and then we’re just gonna ping pong until one of these levels gives way.

Run it back turbo

The 3H 200s are still confluent with these local range lows, so that would be the true indication that we’re out of the woods.

What’s the issue with that analysis?

We’d have to wait for the reclaim, so that’s opportunity cost.

But I have had good success trading Lighter using the 3H 200s, so I’m probably just gonna do the same thing that’s already been fruitful for me.

I would rather play the 3H 200s deviation back inside that local range with clear skies ahead.

Setups aka i aint reading all that

Setup: LIT long

Trigger — reclaim of the 3H 200s, deviating back inside the local range