TradFi

The SPX uptrend has been ridiculously strong.

Q2 has been phenomenal, but as we get into June, July, August, I think the bid dries up and SPX trades sideways.

A clean range gives risk-defined entries, and if a deep pullback comes, I'm looking at the lower 7K region to add.

Until the range actually forms though, I can't try to call levels.

Gold thesis is unchanged. I hold it for diversification, not outperformance. If I wanted to add metals for growth, copper is what I'd want, and maybe if assets get a little selling pressure in the next couple months, I’ll add. I'm not FOMOing.

REMX and XLE are still core ETF holds.

Bitcoin win-win scenarios

The original plan was to trade up toward 84k and reject, but that got front-run at 82.5k.

If we get over 84k soon, prices could trade up a lot more aggressively, but I'd consider that a very low chance.

The most likely scenario is Bitcoin's bid dries up and Bitcoin goes into consolidation or pullback.

Compared to SPX, Bitcoin probably trades down quite a bit more during this period, just because it doesn't have that same passive bid.

Through Q3 into Q4, I think Bitcoin does the classic triangle compression, and ideally we get the October open nuke-then-up that's been the pattern over the years.

For me, it feels win-win.

Over 84k and trade up is a W.

Pullback is also a W because I can just buy more.

When I unhedged at 65k going into Q2, I wanted to add to the stack and never did. I just let price appreciate and chilled spot long.

I'm still spot long, and I'm not trying to hedge out short periods of drawdown.

Quick scan on the VWAPs.

We're bouncing off the quarterly VWAP, which is roughly the same as the yearly.

So this could be a pivotal moment where Bitcoin bounces off these higher timeframe VWAPs and attacks the highs again.

A lot of people are probably front-running the end of May, thinking it's time to sell, which means maybe we catch them off guard by trading up.

On medium timeframe, this is the first time since we started trending in April where we've had a clear multi-day composite structure built below the previous ones.

It's the first worrying sign and a very clear sign of momentum loss. If the reclaim doesn't come soon, ideally this week or next, and we don't get back above the 30-day rolling VWAP, we're going to trade down.

Momentum loss is prevalent, but it can quickly get invalidated by just one strong day. If we trade up first, you'd probably see altcoins trade up pretty aggressively, so that would be a great window to trade short term.

Just don't get lost in the sauce and expect a massive bull trend.

Trying something new

The longer you trade, the more your rate of progress plateaus, and the more you’re at risk of getting bored.

I've always been a simpleton directional trader — I bet on up, I bet on down.

What I want to do is get into volatility trading. I've had a really good read on when to short volatility for a long time. Zero interest in long volatility, but I think I could do pretty well shorting it.

Could be refreshing, instead of me always being the old head going "yeah, I've done this for years."

P.S. If you’re ever interested in new topics just hit reply to this email and let me know.

Bitcoin had a big puke over the weekend, continuing off the Friday weakness.

Price rejected off the 6-week+ 12 hour trend, but then recovered beautifully.

Big failed breakdown right back into value, which is often bullish.

Confluence around 79

The yearly gave us a perfect bounce off the VWAP, so the natural target is a higher high tagging the yearly value high, taking out the wick we put in.

Monthly VWAP sits right at 79k, with monthly value high at 80k. Weekly value high and composite value high overlap there too. That number keeps coming up again and again.

If we squeeze through the composite and hold, clearance opens up to 79, and through 79 I'd be looking ambitiously towards 83, 84.

If we dip to open the week, previous week's value low and VWAP are levels to long, with invalidation around composite values.

Monthly open is around the corner

The past several months the monthly open has been bullish.

March straight up off the open, April after maybe a day of bleed, May very strong before fading later in the month.

The new month is 5 days away. If we get a monthly open dip, I’ll be speculating on monthly open strength.

CMEs went from S tier to D tier

The edge we had in 2025 trading around CME gaps, using them for entry triggers, take profits, hasn't held up so far in 2026.

The CME's threatening to go 24 hours, basically running through the weekend with small maintenance windows, so traders have adjusted.

This is the natural course of how metas shift. I use them until they stop working.

About to double my Bitcoin stack

I want to buy more Bitcoin spot, and I’ve been slowly accumulating over the last four months.

Since the February capitulation I've been throwing it in cold storage every month and not really caring.

Shifting to accumulation mindset

Coins like Hyperliquid no longer care, hitting new all-time highs in what you'd consider a bear market.

A lot of coins are in long-standing accumulation ranges right now. My mindset should shift a little bit away from intraday BTC and toward alts that are distancing themselves.

Stocks are the better investment right now, giving better gains with less risk. So what's the point of Bitcoin and crypto?

The self-fulfilling prophecy.

I don't think we topped last year for any reason other than momentum loss. Whales were looking at it as a four-year cycle top. “We need to sell, let's unload bags.” And it snowballed.

Same thing happens in reverse. The four-year cycle bottom will get prophesized for later this year, and people position into that, myself included.

I don't care if we go to 60k or 40k, I'll buy. That's another snowball.

For those of you locking into intraday with me and Magus, pat yourself on the back, that’s great income.

But the biggest gains come from spot holds, not intraday. Slowly shifting my mindset.

On Bitcoin, I'm not particularly bullish or bearish.

This is slow, grindy, painful PA, and I don't want to short or long this.

What I'm in: quarter size of HYPE

When you see this consolidation after a push to new highs, that's typically bullish.

If it was a parabolic blowoff top you'd get your lower high and revert to the mean. I'm a quarter size on this now and trying to see it through.

If we start losing that and momentum looks weak and the rest of the market dies, I'll just clap it and take it off.

Not going to round trip anything like this again, I've done that far too much lately.

What I'm watching: USELESS

I really like ZEC, but USELESS has got the relative strength and structurally it's much cleaner.

Parabolic runup, you should get a blowoff top and potential next leg.

Consolidation at these highs, but if this crashes, it crashes pretty hard. There's probably a continuation trade on the break of this, but you're going to have to be locked in and dialed to jump in.

It's pretty illiquid so you have to be careful with sizing, you can't ape this with a million dollars. 50-100k type sizing max. Unless you just buy spot and chill.

Round-tripping lesson

Took the jelly jelly trade, sold some at the literal pico high and pretty much round tripped the rest.

Previous all-time-highs are very important levels for these kinds of coins

HTF (weekly) trend has capped the upwards grind of BTC for now, with price rejecting into the 70s.

Zooming in, this is the first time BTC has been trading inside the standard deviation band of VWAP anchored to the beginning of the trend starting in April.

Currently trading right above developing yearly value with multiple forms of confluence at ~74.

Some poor highs and prev month high at 79 and the 74 area are the two major areas of interest right now. Continued weakness through 74 = rotation lower.

Acceptance above previous month high offers a shot at another attempt of reclaiming the HTF trend.

Chopping around while some alts like NEAR, HYPE, RENDER continue to show dominance.

This probably remains the case unless BTC loses HTF value (~74), which would drag many alts down fast. But strong alts should offer quick retrace bounces or retrace less compared to the broader market.

Good to keep an eye on the spaghetti chart to gauge alt strength. I think within the next two months there will continue to be solid pockets of opportunity.

HYPE

Over the past few months, we've had a large focus on the outperformer in the crypto market, HYPE.

When it deviated back inside of the range at $36, we mentioned the next clear target, as long as range lows were successfully held, would be $50, then price discovery.

We got exactly what we wanted, and with HYPE trending into new all-time highs, it's time to let the market do the heavy lifting for us, and see how much fuel we've got in the tank for this rally.

It's in our best interest to let assets like this run; it's the entire appeal to trading crypto in the first place.

RENDER

AI coins have been hot recently, and RENDER has been among the strongest in that basket.

Only recently have we seen the reaction of reclaiming a 1.5-year downtrend, after a -90% selloff.

With this favorable context on very high timeframes in mind, I’m assuming that this coin's rally is only just getting started.

I'll be looking for pullbacks into 4H 200 MAs, along with previous range highs looking to be retested as support, for entries into the greater trend.

My target may seem outlandish as of today, as it did on HYPE many months ago, but with that HTF context I can justify dreaming bigger.

These are the times where the market has clear potential to reward me for very little effort.